Talk:Global warming

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Article Checklist for "Global warming"
Workgroup category or categories Earth Sciences Workgroup [Categories OK]
Article status Developing article: beyond a stub, but incomplete
Underlinked article? Yes
Basic cleanup done? No
Checklist last edited by Nereo Preto 08:23, 26 May 2007 (CDT)

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Climate change?

Shouldn't this be under "climate change"? This may be purely semantic, but if global warming is a cyclic phenomenon, then it seems we would only have periods of of warming, followed by periods of stabilization, followed by more warming (i.e. it would only ever get hotter). But this article describes periods of worming alternating with periods of cooling. Since it would be wasteful to have a separate article on global cooling, one article should address both under a holistic title. Cheers! Brian Dean Abramson 23:47, 9 May 2007 (CDT)

When I think of 'global warming' the evidence for warming being related to human activity comes to mind, rather than the general phenomenon of cyclical warming. Shouldn't this page more obviously point to information about current climate change? John Stephenson 00:22, 10 May 2007 (CDT)
You're both right, of course. Perhaps an article on climate change or climate cycles would be better than what I have. As for the role of human activity, I propose an article on Anthropogenic global warming which would present the most popular current theories; and which would present any evidence in favor of these theories, as well as any facts which contradict them.
But Larry said it's controversial, so should we even get into this at all? I'm a new writer here, and maybe I should wait until I have a few "approved" articles under my belt before tackling a hard subject like this. --Ed Poor 09:09, 10 May 2007 (CDT)
Clearly your history precedes you ! But i'd say there is no harm in getting started. The climate editors can always choose not to approve it, right? Chris Day (talk) 10:15, 10 May 2007 (CDT)
Is it really controversial, though? It is a subject that has been heavily politicized in recent years, but that's not the same thing. This isn't my field, but it's my impression that whatever scientific controversy there may have been is all but settled. Greg Woodhouse 09:37, 10 May 2007 (CDT)
If it had been settled, then there would be no more controversy. The reason some people are still touting anthropogenic global warming theory over the scientifically established natural warming theory, is that the science of natural warming is not settled. Some very prominent journals have even taken stands against natural warming; one even refused point blank to publish an anti-anthropogenic paper - after it had passed peer review - on the grounds that would be "of no interest" to their readers.
When the facts are all laid out clearly, then the theories which are shown to be in accordance with the facts will eventually become accepted. Until then, wishful thinking, prejudice and partisanship will prevail. --Ed Poor 10:54, 10 May 2007 (CDT)
I agree - "settled" is a loaded term which implies that no open questions rationally remain on the subject. As an example, I'd say it is "settled" that the Holocaust occurred in Germany in the 1940s, and anyone who denies that it happened is speaking irrationally. Likewise, it is "settled" that temperatures are rising, and I think we can all agree that humans necessarily have some impact on this, but it is not "settled" whether the human contribution is akin to throwing a bucket of water into a rainstorm, or whether it is the rainstorm. I am inclined to think it is the latter - but I have no expertise in climatology! Brian Dean Abramson 11:11, 10 May 2007 (CDT)
Well, let's not say "settled" (= it would be irrational to question it) but "there is a growing consensus among climatologists" (this is either factual or not, and is capable of being documented). I don't think the choice is between "facts" and "partisanship" -- the Earth's climate is an enormously complex thermodynamic system, and as we seek to understand its workings, it's to be expected that there will be some differences in inetrpretation among experts who study it. We can't speak of "facts" here in any absolute sense, but we can accurately report how current climate data is collected, analyzed, and used to support the prevailing views out there. Russell Potter 11:17, 10 May 2007 (CDT)
The basic concepts of global warming are well-agreed upon within the scientific community. There is no question among them that the Earth's global mean temperatures have been rising since the mid-1800s, humans are the primary cause of this warming, and continued warming is expected given the current trends. None of this should be downplayed in this article. My regards, Benjamin Seghers 22:22, 13 May 2007 (CDT)

Given that this issue is not settled even though some sources report signficant asymmetries of opinion, any science historian could tell you that these issues have a shelf life. Bias is another problem. If someone argues against an issue and that opinion is unpopular, chances are it will either be invalidated or supported. My point, call it a bias if you will but those biases are an integral part of science. My solution is that the various approaches be dealt with and their positions be identified. This will ensure that the articles--which will get rather large unless broken up into schools of thought--will not have a shelf life. In other words, there is no reason why we can not track the arguments. They are part of the history of science and the very nature of enquiry. --Thomas Simmons 15:55, 27 May 2007 (CDT)

Fred Singer

I don't think that Fred Singer (see a brief outline on him here) should be quoted -- or if so, should be the only one quoted, about climate change. Though he clearly has some scientific qualifications, he's a bit out of his field, as well as far, far out of the current scientific consensus among climatiologists. Of course, in the interests of neutrality, his views may well deserve mention somewhere in this entry, but not as a sole authority. Russell Potter 10:42, 10 May 2007 (CDT)

He has a PhD in physics, and he got the satellite program that records earth's climate from space. He also writes clearly, has published peer-reviewed articles, and is retired. He is beholden to no one, and no threat of "withdrawing funds" can influence his work.
We can also quote active university scientists like Richard Lindzen (MIT) and Sallie Baliunas (Harvard).
The latest poll I saw of climatologists indicates much less than overwhelming support for anthropogenic global warming theory.
  • A 1997 survey by American Viewpoint found that state climatologists believe that global warming is largely a natural phenomenon by a margin of 44 to 17 percent. [1]
Better yet, we can check the papers these scientists cite in the popular treatments and double-check everything. --Ed Poor 10:49, 10 May 2007 (CDT)
Well, a PhD in physics doesn't necessarily a climatologist make, though it may make a perfectly good physicist. But my understanding of our neutrality policy is that we should reflect the current state of knowledge in the field, state where there are well-known points of disagreement, and if two reasonably valuid sides are seen to exist, say as much and give some account of each. I don't think we're in the business of conducting polls among scientists (or interpreting such polls); that's not how scientific knowledge works. The entry should outline the nature, hsitory, etc. of global climate, show significant recent research, and summarize the range of views -- not excluding, but certainly not focusing exclusively on, global warming skeptics. Russell Potter 11:08, 10 May 2007 (CDT)
p.s the poll you cite was conducted by the National Center for Public Policy Research, a conservative think-tank that lobbies against those who feel global warming is a problem. Russell Potter 11:11, 10 May 2007 (CDT)
I think Singer can be quoted, but the article should note his obvious bias. Indeed, Singer is a very knowledgeable man while egregiously biased and narrow-minded. Yi Zhe Wu 17:56, 25 May 2007 (CDT)

Useful links

There are good starting points for this argument. Two I may suggest are:

Real climate, a blog held by top-level scientists, some involved in the IPCC (link below)

The IPCC 4th report, document of a panel, including the best climate scientists around, on the current state of knowledge about recent global warming.

Both are pro-anthropogenic, I don't know links to contrarians.

--Nereo Preto 11:33, 10 May 2007 (CDT)

A more more moderate Web site on the topic of global warming World Climate Report. They're not contrarians, per se, as they do accept the basic notions of global warming. However, they have serious doubts about the expected effects and the amount humans have contributed to global warming. The site, like RealClimate, is run by scientists. I don't think there are any serous Web pages or blogs that explicitly deny global warming that warrant mentioning, but I could be wrong. Cheers. Benjamin Seghers 22:29, 13 May 2007 (CDT)

Real climate just posted a terrific list of links for beginners-to-experts who want to learn about Global Warming here. I will take advantage of these links for a few edits in the next few days. I'll work on historical record first. --Nereo Preto 10:26, 24 May 2007 (CDT)

I need some help about copyright. Does someone understand if we can use figures from the IPCC reports? Copyright infos are here, but I'm not sure it says we can post their figures in our article. Any ideas? --Nereo Preto 03:40, 26 May 2007 (CDT)
I doubt you'd be able to use them from that site. However, there's quite a few free images at http://www.globalwarmingart.com/. ~ Benjamin Seghers 12:35, 26 May 2007 (CDT)

Scientific opinion

There's an article at Wikipedia summarizing scientific opinion on climate change, that might be worth consulting. If nothing else, it illustrates that there is widespread support in the scientific community for the idea that human activity has had a significant effect on climate change. Greg Woodhouse 11:41, 10 May 2007 (CDT)

I don't think we should rely on wikipedia for anything. Also, should we be considering scientific "opinion" or "evidence"? Things can be observed and recorded but to have an opinion is another.--Robert W King 12:23, 10 May 2007 (CDT)
I don't think anyone is relying on Wikipedia here for anything beyond a handy summary of the current views of the major climatologists and professional associations. The sense of "opinion" here is expert, reasoned opinion consistent with a reading of available data, not the scientists' personal opinions. Russell Potter 12:31, 10 May 2007 (CDT)
Ok, just wanted a clarification. All is well. --Robert W King 12:40, 10 May 2007 (CDT)

Proposed move

Text here was removed by the Constabulary on grounds of civility. (The author may replace this template with an edited version of the original remarks.)

could we all start to re-write what we said here please?

Possible layout

To get this article started, we should probably start with a good layout. I propose the following:

  • Intro
Summarizes the entire article concisely.
  • Attribution
What causes global warming?
  • Greenhouse effect
A bit on the GHE
  • Sun's role
A bit on the Sun's role as discussed in the scientific literature and in adherence with the neutrality policy
  • Effects
What has global warming caused and what can we expect from continued warming?
  • Mitigation
Discussion of mitigation

Thoughts? Benjamin Seghers 00:30, 16 May 2007 (CDT)

Great!
This implies we are talking of "recent global warming", and not about natural climate variability in geologic times. I believe it's the right direction.
May I suggest to add a brief chapter about natural climate variability, as seen in geological records (e.g. the Vostok ice core, but much older examples also exist). Also, Greenhouse effect already exists, so we might keep the chapter short and give a link. --Nereo Preto 03:01, 16 May 2007 (CDT)
Yeah, I think a good summary of previous climate change would provide some useful context. We could also summarize the greenhouse effect article to briefly explain how it works and its relationship to global warming. Benjamin Seghers 10:43, 16 May 2007 (CDT)

Outside views of this article

For those just tuning in, you may want to look at this harsh critique of this global warming article, based partly but not entirely on an earlier version. See also the comments discussion there. David Hoffman 18:43, 16 May 2007 (CDT)

Indeed, bur Dr. Connolley fails note this article is less than a week old. Benjamin Seghers 20:18, 16 May 2007 (CDT)

I'm afraid those guys are fundamentally right. Our article is still too weak to compete with hundreds of other entries available in the web. We are talking here of an hot argument, the IPCC 4th report (the ultimate source for this topic) is about 1000 pages of good science about global warming and is available for free in the web. We are offering a mere half-a-page, with statements far from state-of-the-art here and there. It should be my duty to edit "less gently" (a comment in the blog cited above), but -for personal reasons-, I'll be able to work on it only after May, 24th (sorry).

On the other hand, the article is just started and we desperately need some climatologists. I'll post there, hope they understand.

Thanks to all contributors, anyways. Continue to be bold... and read the IPCC report. Ciao! --Nereo Preto 01:58, 17 May 2007 (CDT)

I'll Try working on it more in the mean time. Benjamin Seghers 13:15, 17 May 2007 (CDT)
One of the problems is assuming that the UN can be the ultimate source of scientific truth. What makes anyone in this project regard their IPCC assessments as authoritative? One assessment is contradicted by the next. Scientists quit after having their work misinterpreted. Unauthorized changes are made in a draft after it is approved by scientists.
Science is not determined by voting on it. We get our scientific knowledge when researchers allow their data and methods to be examined by others. If no one can replicate their work, it's considered "junk science" and discarded, like cold fusion. --Ed Poor 14:42, 23 May 2007 (CDT)
Science is determined by the scientific method -- a method which, contrary to some of the rhetoric here, quite often produces results which do not conform to the desire for absolute truths either way. The common statement about scientific theories, "it's just a theory" demonstrates the fundamental misunderstanding at work. With as enormously complex a system as earth climates, there are bound to be different theories, models, better or worse sources of data, and a certain level of indeterminacy as with any such massive array of thermodynamic systems. Nevertheless, there is a very clear and solid scientific consensus at the moment that human activity is a significant factor in the current warming trend. What we need to do is not to quote polls, but to have one, and preferably more than one, credentialed, representative climate scientists working on this entry. Their expertise will better address these issues than all of the well-meaning discussion by those of us -- myself and Ed Poor included -- who are not experts in this area. Otherwise we risk having an entry that others will point to as a source of embarrassment. Russell Potter 14:50, 23 May 2007 (CDT)
Mr. Poor, the scientific academies of every industrialized nation and then some have recognized the IPCC as consensus builder. But do not be mistaken, the IPCC is not making their information up. The information presented by the IPCC is the independent research of hundreds, if not thousands, of leading scientists and published in renowned journals such as Science and Nature. If you're looking for evidence, look at their papers. It's becoming rather robust and clear. Benjamin Seghers 17:46, 23 May 2007 (CDT)
I'd rather you would summarize the "evidence" of those papers and place them in the article. The endorsements of the academies on this point are not relevant, unless you want to argue that when the same academies endorsed eugenics it made any difference.
If something can be stated clearly, and then compared to observed facts, it is a scientific theory. All else is pseudoscience. --Ed Poor 17:14, 25 May 2007 (CDT)
On the contrary, Ed, there are many things that can be stated clearly, but where the preponderance of the evidence may take some time to become clear. For example, Einstein's theories of relativity, for instance, were very readily and clearly stated, but we are still today, as we have for more than a century, finding new ways of understanding them through different kinds of observations and experiments. As for your ad academiam attack, saying that because academy 'X' once endorsed exploded idea 'Y" that we should just dismiss their views forever on all issues, that's just a sort of posturing, not a real argument. In cases where there is a clear preponderance of informed, expert scientific views, as published in refereed journals, as there certainly is in the area of climate change, we should certainly say so, explain why the vast majority of people who have studied this field have this view, while at the same time of course acknowledging that there are some dissident views out there. A true scientist is always open to having her/his views changed by new studies, new evidence -- but we, as an encyclopedia, have a duty to represent the current state of knowledge here accurately. Russell Potter 17:52, 25 May 2007 (CDT)
This discussion shouldn't go too much in the direction of what science is I think. Can we go back to the reliability of the IPCC reports? My point of view is there is not, at present, any other source as authoritative as the IPCC. Reasons are (1) the wide range and number of scientists involved; (2) the huge literature called in support of the report; (3) the positive feedback from policy makers, who were instead expected to reject the results because of their unconveniency.
I'm not saying that the IPCC report is perfect (science never is), but I couldn't find anything better in the web or in the scientific literature. If better or complimentary sources really exist, they should be suggested in the /* Useful links */ section, so the post can become a useful help for contributors.
For what references are concerned, the best article should refer to scientific publications directly rather than to summarizing reports, even if the last are good as the IPCC report is. At the moment, however, the IPCC report is the best review of climate science around. It is reasonable that contributors will find much easier to refer to the IPCC report, and track down citations only in a second time.
--Nereo Preto 03:57, 26 May 2007 (CDT)

What a laugh. I was pointing out the fallacy of appeal to authority, but instead *I* got slammed with a personal attack in the form of a false accusation of argument ad hominem. How desperate are the pro-AG warmers?

And what happened to "Let's tell both sides of the story?" Are we trying to create a "consensus article" here? Or a neutral one?

I have several questions:

  1. Larry, does the Citizendium project endorse any particular form of The Scientific Method? If so, which one?
  2. If not, then is it the policy of this project merely to list the individuals and groups which endorse or condemn the various viewpoints on political controversies? And does this include political controversies over what the scientific facts are; and over which theories explaining these facts are true or false?
  3. In other words, do we take a "Scientific Point Of View" like Wikipedia, where our project endorses whatever some percentage of scientists or preponderance of scientific groups says?

I have a few comments. I would hope that if we as writers with some lay background in science cannot agree on (1) what the facts are or (2) what theories best explain these facts - then we would simply express the major points of view without drawing any conclusion about which should be considered the most correct at all.

I daresay we can't even agree on what percentage of climate scientists agree with, are undecided on, or disagree with ANY of the various points in the global warming controversy, such as:

  1. Was 1999 the warmest year in recorded human history?
    • Or in the last 1,500 years?
  2. Was there a worldwide Medieval Warm Period, as the UN's assessment previously stated?
  3. Has there been significant, periodic, natural warming (and cooling!) over the last 900,000 years - all over the world (not just in Europe)?
  4. If the "climate models" are correct, should we see more warming in the middle atmosphere than at the surface?
    • If so, but we don't see this, does this mean the models are wrong and AGW is unproven (or even disproved)?
    • And if that would disprove (see Falsification) the AGW theory, what sort of warming has been observed in the middle atmosphere compared to the surface?

Note that I am not asking what the various contributors to this article believe, nor am I asserting anything or arguing anything myself. I am only wondering aloud what proportion of climate scientists have taken a position for or against these ideas (or have declared themselves undecided).

Democrats and Greens (see also Environmentalists) state that there is a "scientific consensus" on all these points - or at least on the overall conclusion. Republicans, conservatives and several independent apolitical scientists say (1) that there is NO CONSENSUS among scientists about these points and (2) that there are dozens of peer-reviewed, published scientific papers in leading journals that DISPROVE each of the key assumptions of the pro-AGW arguments.

Larry, maybe I was wrong to open this Pandora's Box. Maybe Citizendium is not prepared to handle one of the world's top political controversies. Maybe we can't agree how to write about it. Maybe NPOV can't get us to agree to disagree even about whether the global warming issue is "political" or "scientific", let alone whether there is a "scientific consensus" or "the science is not settled".

I did not intend to open a can of worms. If you want to me shut up (or withdraw the article), I'm willing to do so. In fact, I'll do whatever you tell me while I'm here. I'm an "ignorant, easily led Christian", so just give me my orders! :-) --Ed Poor 19:53, 26 May 2007 (CDT)


A comment here was deleted by The Constabulary on grounds of making complaints about fellow Citizens. If you have a complaint about the behavior of another Citizen, e-mail constables@citizendium.org. It is contrary to Citizendium policy to air your complaints on the wiki. See also CZ:Professionalism.

Mr. Poor, maybe if you did not delete the science section, you may have very well found your answers. First, however, 1998 (not 1999) is said to be the warmest year on record, but this was also the year of a rather extreme El Niño. For this reason, 2005 is typically regarded as the warmest year on record. Second, It's unlikely the MWP was in fact global. And if you consider the WMP be to be a period of typically higher temperatures, then, yes, it did occur. Third, of course. No one disputes this. It bears little relevance on the Industrial age warming, however. Fourth, if the models are incorrect, this does not mean global warming isn't happening, no. Benjamin Seghers 12:15, 28 May 2007 (CDT) (Edit: Sorry, forgot to sign.)
I'd like to answer some points raised above. First of all, could the previous comment be signed please? I assume you forgot the signature in absolute good faith, of course! It's just "you" is an impolite way to call you... (I suppose you should cancel this line as soon as you post your signature) (...so it was you? Sorry if I called you "you"...)
Was there a worldwide Medieval Warm Period, as the UN's assessment previously stated?
As far as I know, no. The MWP seem to be not global in extent, but actually this is a very difficult issue. The main reason for this difficulty is, the climate shift called Medieval Warm Period seem to be much smaller than, e.g., the present one, hence the difficulties in characterizing it.
Or is arch-AGW advocate Michael Mann's hockey stick graph correct, as the UN's more recent assessment stated?
Yes it is, substantially. There were problems raised with the statistics used to build the curve, but further investigations ended up witht the conclusion that yes, the "hockey stick" is the temperature curve you get from land-based and satellite instrumental data. cf. Hopkins, 2007 - Climate sceptics switch focus to economics, Nature, v. 445, pp. 582-583.
Has there been significant, periodic, natural warming (and cooling!) over the last 900,000 years - all over the world (not just in Europe)?
Not sure about their global significance, but yes, Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles exist. As many other natural climate shifts, even more terrible. This, however, has no bearing with the issue of Global warming. After the 8200 y bp event, climate (as described by global temperatures) was rather stable. The first substantial shift in global temperatures begun with the 20th century.
there are dozens of peer-reviewed, published scientific papers in leading journals that DISPROVE each of the key assumptions of the pro-AGW arguments
One should start with a citation, and show how it compares with other papers. But for my understanding of literature, there are hundreeds of papers disproving each of these negative analyses.
More generally, there is no problem in discussing science. A good start might be posting a comment on a specific topic (e.g., role of solar forcing? One of the most controversial points) and how it could be shown to disprove AGW. Such post should be supported by literature, papers are better than web pages because were peer-reviewed, but a good web page could do it as well in the beginning. Then of course the scientific argument is to be discussed scientifically. It cannot be like "someone say this, we must let him room in the article". If "someone"'s points were then disproved by scientific argumentation in published papers, mr. "someone" is not worth a citation. Can we agree on this?
--Nereo Preto 12:12, 28 May 2007 (CDT)

Stay focused on the issue

Hi all, I have removed some content above just so we can get a fresh start. I am making no judgements concerning content, but see that perhaps some miscommunication may be occurring. Please keep it professional. No-one expects everyone to agree, but lets keep the tone scholarly and the only arguments should be those related to global warming please. This is not a warning to anyone in particular at this point. --Matt Innis (Talk) 20:37, 26 May 2007 (CDT)

Snowball earth

I thouht that the snowball earth theory was still somewhat controversial. We need an expert in this field to clarify this beore we include snowball earth in the article. Greg Woodhouse 15:37, 26 May 2007 (CDT)

It's sort of controversial, but I think you'll find most scientists agree with the major parts of the theory. At any rate, I'm sure there are proper references that could be found for sentence. Benjamin Seghers 16:43, 26 May 2007 (CDT)

It's not my field, so I'll certainly defefr to th judgement of others, but I wonder if the article shouldn't say something like "it is widely accepted that..." (with appropriate references, of course). Greg Woodhouse 18:12, 26 May 2007 (CDT)

Snowball Earth is not so important. It is just I thought we need some extreme example to clarify how climate changes naturally. That huge glaciations occurred in the Precambrian, this is pretty much accomplished. That all the planet was covered by ice, this is still disputed (central parts of the oceans may have been still exposed). Anyone having another good example is welcome to change the sentence! --Nereo Preto 11:39, 28 May 2007 (CDT)

Page move + Ed Poor

It looks like we have a lot more than we bargained for, unless the Citizendium higher-ups actually do act as they say. Needless to say, we ought not let Conservapedia's administrators make this encyclopedia their mirror. I find Ed Poor's edits rather unconstructive, heavily biased, and without foundation. Apparently, science has no involvement in global warming. Benjamin Seghers 20:57, 26 May 2007 (CDT)

I agree that science has little to do with most partisan wrangling over global warming. That's why I wanted to divide the topic into the politics and the science of it.
The only science I've seen, in the ten years I've been reading about it (as a layman), is that there are natural cycles which are related to the variations in (1) solar output and (2) the Earth's orbit.
The anthropogenic global warming theory has no basis in science which I've been able to see. I'd love to see an article on AGW theory. What would it look like?
It would have to present an explanation of the facts. It would also have to be capable of generating hypotheses which are potentially "falsifiable". That is, we should be able to derive corollary deductions from the AGW theory which can be compared with the facts; if the facts contradict the corollary deductions, then the theory is wrong.
Failing that, AGW must be regarded as Pseudoscience. Or in a "neutral" account, the article must say that X percent of scientists regard it as pseudoscience on the grounds that it is "unfalsifiable" (i.e, doesn't make predictions that can be checked). --Ed Poor 19:25, 30 May 2007 (CDT)

Climatology as a science

  1. What are its accomplishments, if any?
  2. Which of those accomplishments, if any, have achieved practical use in the world outside the science?
  3. Is it more than just a bunch of people studying computer models (which it sometimes seems to be)? What are the accomplishments of those models, if any? How do they compare with the accomplishments of other computer models?
  4. Has the field had any scandals like THIS scientific one and THIS scholarly one?
  5. What guards against such scandals in climatology?

In other words, why should non-climatologists give climatology any credibility, how much credibility should they give it, etc.? Louis F. Sander 20:51, 26 May 2007 (CDT)

I don't see the point of attacking an entire field of study here -- the false claims of two scientists ought not indict an entire field! Russell Potter 21:00, 26 May 2007 (CDT)
Hey, I'm just asking about the field, which doesn't seem to be a very solid one. Louis F. Sander 21:05, 26 May 2007 (CDT)
I'm not a climatologist, but I had to read some scientific papers by climatologists. I don't think the value of an entire field of science is worth a discussion, though. Some climatologists did interesting works (at least from the point of view of an academic like me), some of these works are even exciting. I suppose some climatological papers are crap, but hey, crap creeps out from everywhere if you look close enough!
I'm not sure practical applications are necessary to say a science is good. Take Einstein's general relativity: awfully good science, but no practical applications...
And, finally, about what guards against scandals in climatology. Well, every scientist do. Scientists want to publish papers. If there's crap around, the easiest way to publish is to comment on that crap. I believe bad science has always a hard time to survive, science is in fact continuously under scrutiny. "Bad" science that survived for long wasn't probably so bad, or problems were so difficult to spot that even the authors couldn't see them. Another classical example: Newton's physics was substantially wrong, but it took Einstein to get it (more) right. It was science, though, and good science of course.
--Nereo Preto 01:45, 28 May 2007 (CDT)
What separates climatology from astrology? Both study natural phenomena, then make predictions about the future. There is no doubt that astrologers basic data are accurate; the movement of the stars and planets has been studied for centuries, and the observations are not open to question. By comparison, climatologists' data is very, very shaky. (Studied by not-so-solid methods, studied not very long, not universally agreed on, etc.) I leave it to others to show the validity of their predictions from this not-so-solid data, but my sense is that those predictions are less reliable than those of astrologers.
What separates climatology from Newtonian physics? The measurements of Newtonian physics are accurate, repeatable, and independently verifiable by almost anyone. Those of climatology are not. The practical applications of Newtonian physics are legion, and prove the validity of the science. As far as I know, climatology has a zero on that score.
When writing articles based on the work of climatologists, one should avoid starting from "climatology is believable because it is a science" as far as I can see, it is not a very solid one. Its accomplishments are analogized HERE. Louis F. Sander 06:57, 28 May 2007 (CDT)
I don't believe that it's within the purview of an encyclopedia to reject an entire field of scientific study. Astrology is not science, or even a pseudoscience, really, the comparison makes no sense. Climatology seems less "reliable" than Newtonian physics because it is *much* harder to limit the variables and the systems (chemical, thermodynamic) are many orders of magnitude more complex than, say, a simple mechanical system such as a wheel on an incline. Russell Potter 07:15, 28 May 2007 (CDT)
I'm not attacking climatology, or rejecting it. I'm just asking to see some of its accomplishments. That should be easy, shouldn't it?
Not only does climatology seem less reliable than Netwonian physics, but as far as I can tell, it has no practical accomplishments whatsoever. Complexity doesn't excuse that. Obscure journal articles don't make up for it.
The comparison with astrology makes considerable sense: both fields study data from the world of nature, and then they make predictions based on what they see. (And, as stated above, astrological data is orders of magnitude more precise, reliable, and widely-agreed-on than climatological data.) What doesn't make sense is giving unconditional credibility to climatological predictions because they are "scientific." What IS it that makes them credible? Louis F. Sander 08:39, 28 May 2007 (CDT)
Well basically everything we know about climate comes climatology, and that's quite a bit. We now understand historical climate fairly well, and we're able to predict future climate fairly well. Climatology has already identified global warming and have identified it as a big problem; it's now up to the rest to listen to them. They identified gaping holes in our ozone, and that problem has been exceedingly reduced. Climatology has brought benefits to agriculture, and other areas that impact everyday life. You may want to read this. You might get something out of it. Benjamin Seghers 12:12, 28 May 2007 (CDT)
Two examples. Predictions on global warming 1988 match actual global warming: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/hansens-1988-projections/
A second comes from deep time. Using GCM, Kutzback and Gallimore (Kutzbach, J.E., and Gallimore, R.G., 1989, Pangaean climates: Megamonsoons of the megacontinent: Journal of Geophysical research, v. 94, p. 3341–3358.) suggested that huge monsoons were active at pangean times (e.g., Permian, Triassic, Jurassic). Later, geologists found evidence that monsoons were present in the tropical belt of Pangaea, even in localities where they shouldn't have been found with monsoons as strong as today (e.g., Dubiel, R.F., Totman Parrish, J., Parrish, J.M., and Good, S.C., 1991, The Pangaean megamonsoon – evidence from the Upper Triassic Chinle Formation, Colorado plateau: Palaios, v. 6, pp. 347–370; Loope, D.B, Rowe, C.M., and Joeckel, R.M., 2001, Annual monsoon rains recorded by Jurassic dunes: Nature, v. 412, p. 64–66). Note that I'm not climatologist, so I have immediate access to a rather limited set of examples.
I suggest we should stop discussing the merits of climatology here.
About astrology, data of course are good, as they are astronomical data and predictions, the problem with astrology is that the way data are interpreted brings to wrong results. Astrology is not science because wrong results are not a problem to astrologists. In science, wrong results are real problems and imply either the data were wrong, or the interpretation (or the theory used for interpretation) is wrong. But, again, this has nothing to do with Global warming.
--Nereo Preto 11:30, 28 May 2007 (CDT)
I read the AIP stuff that "I might get something out of." It said nothing about the accomplishments of climatology. What I did get out of it was that climatology is a very young "science," and before the 1980s or so, it was pretty much a zero. I looked briefly at one of the papers proposed by Nereo Preto. It read like an astrology paper demonstrating that a horoscope had accurately forecast somebody's life. (Astrology does that sometimes. So does tea-leaf reading.)
As an open-minded skeptic about the "science" of climatology, I can see why non-skeptics might not want to discuss its merits. 1) Those merits, if any, are extremely hard to discern. 2) People who answer simple questions about those merits do so by referring questioners to esoteric journals. (One doesn't need journals to show the merits of other new sciences, e.g., computer science, computed tomography, semiconductor physics. At least one open-minded skeptic wants to know why they are needed for climatology.) 3) The similarities between climatology and pseudo-sciences like astrology must be very disconcerting to those who defend climatology.
To quote Wikipedia, "The scientific community generally considers astrology to be a pseudoscience or superstition, as numerous Western astrologers have failed empirical tests in controlled studies." It's a convenient truth that climatology, like Methodism, scientology and ufology, just isn't very amenable to empirical tests in controlled studies. How, then, can we tell it from a pseudoscience? Louis F. Sander 14:50, 28 May 2007 (CDT)
And which paper did your read? Climatology requires a pretty good understanding of the natural sciences if you want to grasp some concepts and terminologies they use. Needless to say, I don't see how papers being published in Nature and Science could be a bad thing. Benjamin Seghers 14:58, 28 May 2007 (CDT)
I'm not interested in understanding climatology. I'm just a layman interested in identifying its accomplishments. The closer I look, the more I see that there aren't any. Louis F. Sander 15:14, 28 May 2007 (CDT)
I reckon I listed a few for you above. But by your standards, I don't even think geology would be important, so I don't think this argument is worth arguing over. Benjamin Seghers 15:20, 28 May 2007 (CDT)
You said "we're able to predict future climate fairly well." No, we aren't. Louis F. Sander 15:34, 28 May 2007 (CDT)
Climate predictions of the last two decades were accurate within calculated errors once compared with actual climate observations of the 90s and 21st century. Thus, yes, climatologists predicted future climate fairly well. There is literature about that. If you want to make a case against this statement, please provide literature. But, most importantly, this is not the climatology article.
So, please, stop discussing climatology here. If you find false statements in the article, provide evidence from the literature that such statements are false. If sentences of the article needs, in your (I mean, any reader) view, to be supported by literature, ask for it or look for it. But stop discuss climatology as a field here. --Nereo Preto 15:52, 28 May 2007 (CDT)

Controversy

Well, I suppose the article move was inevitable! My own view is that the claim that global warming is controversial is itself controversial -- but I'm going to bow out of this whole area and go back to work in the fields of literature and history -- where, at least, I know a hawk from a handsaw! I hope and trust that others at CZ will bring enough expert opinion here to, as it has in other instances, manage the admirable and difficult balaning act of blending expertise, neutrality, and scope of views Russell Potter 20:59, 26 May 2007 (CDT)

"claim"?

Global warming is a solid fact, it does exist and the scientific community does agree it exist. The temperature did rise, and it was because of carbon emission. It's undeniable and common-sense. Please move it back to "global warming", we have to do better than Conservapedia, alas! Yi Zhe Wu 21:25, 26 May 2007 (CDT)

Agreed - and I was about to do so, but Larry beat me to it. :-) Can we please avoid moving controversial pages without discussion. John Stephenson 23:57, 26 May 2007 (CDT)

Ed's 'Global warming period' article

Everyone have a look at global warming period, which Ed Poor has recently created. John Stephenson 23:59, 26 May 2007 (CDT)

Notice that Ed took the science section from this article and created the Global warming period to separate the two. --Matt Innis (Talk) 00:04, 27 May 2007 (CDT)

The article has been deleted. --Nereo Preto 01:31, 28 May 2007 (CDT)

Moved back

I've moved the article back to "global warming" from "global warming controversy." Obviously, it is possible to discuss any controversy about X in an article about X. We might have, in addition to global warming, an article about the controversy surrounding global warming. But whatever we do, we won't simply redirect the former to the latter, so that there is no more to be said about global warming than the controversy. That in itself is quite obviously contrary to our Neutrality Policy.

I've taken a break today (Saturday) and am just checking in before going to bed--or else I might add more here. --Larry Sanger 23:59, 26 May 2007 (CDT)

I've reverted edits of 27/05. Sorry for the drastic move.
The edits, however, mostly introduced statements which are substantially wrong. It was easier for me to start over from a reasonably good version rather than edit all.
The text in Global warming period is now back in Global warming. The article Global warming period should thus be cancelled, also because there is no such thing as a global warming period. I kind-of understand what the concept is meant to be, but than either his name is greenhouse world, or (if the concept is simply a period of time with average high Earth's temperatures) the concept is not worth an article.
Please, discuss changes so strong as these before edit. Addition is easy to manage, but all these changes of titles and mixing-up of parcels of text are hardly edited or reviewed and may even be took as vandalism.
Won't revert a second time, but I'd like to avoid this article becomes a battleground. If changes are introduced as single corrections or additions, BETTER IF SUPPORTED BY LITERATURE, discussion will become much easier and cool. Thanks in advance.
--Nereo Preto 10:57, 27 May 2007 (CDT)

Dr. Preto, thanks for explaining the reversion. I thought I should clarify: as an Earth Sciences editor, you are within your rights to cut the science section if in your opinion it would be easier to esier to start over from scratch.

You are also in your rights to make the decision to delete an article, particularly if "there is no such thing as" the topic of the article. See Article Deletion Policy. Please simply leave a message on the article's talk page, or send a mail to constables@citizendium.org. --Larry Sanger 11:12, 27 May 2007 (CDT)

Thanks Larry, I did it already. --Nereo Preto 11:14, 27 May 2007 (CDT)

Facts, please...

The article says that global warming (in the narrow meaning specified in the article) "...is believed to be mostly attributable to human activity." IMHO, that phrase should be struck, at least until the not-yet-completed "controversies" section is in place. There are two problems with it: 1) the unattributed, weasel-worded (WP definition) "is believed to be," and 2) the unreferenced "mostly".

It is equally true to say "...is believed to be attributable to natural causes, with perhaps (but this is not settled) a small component due to human activity." Louis F. Sander 13:12, 27 May 2007 (CDT)

No it wouldn't, the former statement is quite easy to reference, unlike the latter. I'll add references in a bit. Benjamin Seghers 13:24, 27 May 2007 (CDT)
It would help if we all could see a summary of the accomplishments of climatology, examples of climatological work that has found practical application in the non-scientific world, etc. I'm no climatologist, but from all I can see, it's a pretty accomplishment-free field. From what I can tell, its practitioners mostly study computer models, then publish papers about it. Unfortunately, their papers are great fodder for propaganda. Louis F. Sander 13:53, 27 May 2007 (CDT)
Well then I hope a knowledgeable author begin working on climatology. I'm sure a more astute studier of climatology can answer your questions for you, but I assure you it is a very scientific field of the natural sciences. Also, not everything is model-based in climatology; a major part of it is based on observation, theory, repeatability, and prediction. It does, after all, follow the scientific method. But like I said, I'm sure a more knowledgeable person would be glad to help you. Benjamin Seghers 14:06, 27 May 2007 (CDT)
How do you think those models they study came to be? These models are -as all science- models created based on observation, and verified by the accuracy in predicting more observations -which can just as well be other proxy data. This is perfectly solid science. Second, climatology is involved in long-term planning of re-insurance companies which have to pay the bill for natural disasters of all kinds. Which is not the least why Munich Re et al. are very much interested in this topic -as you can see for example by looking into their annual reports. I think that as an engineer, you focus too much on direct and short-term applications. Even in biology/medicine, applications sometimes take decades. Climatology studies long-term trends, and as such, it is somewhat far-fetched to expect to see short-term connections to applications. However, all the technological efforts directed against climate change or towards mitigating its effects are, in a way, applications of climatology, since they address its predictions. --18:44, 30 May 2007 (CDT) —The preceding unsigned comment was added by Oliver Hauss (talk • contribs) 15:44, 30 May 2007 (UTC)

A modest proposal

I suggest that we keep this article politics-free, and focus primarily on the science. There's a lot to more to say about global warming in the scientific aspect, probably because global warming is independent of one's political ideology. Or at least can we complete a fairly stable scientific article, and then perhaps start working on the politics and other controversial aspects? Benjamin Seghers 13:30, 27 May 2007 (CDT)

I agree, and probably we should have a separate article on Politics of global warming. Yi Zhe Wu 13:30, 27 May 2007 (CDT)

I am compelled to agree with you both. Sorting out the political from the substantive would be a good way of alerting the reader to the differences and their possible motivations, i.e. their political origins. --Thomas Simmons 15:59, 27 May 2007 (CDT)

I have to disagree. Since anthropogenic global warming has policy implications (or so many believe), the politics of global warming is an essential aspect of any discussion of global warming: I dare say that it is, after all, the political aspects that make us all care about it. It is highly unlikely that "global warming is independent of one's political ideology," if by this one means that one's stance on global warming is likely to be independent of one's ideology. I doubt this very much. Anyway, there should be at least a brief section, even if most of the politics & policy is shunted off elsewhere. By the way, I would say the same thing with regard to intelligent design--there should be a section about the movement in the main article. --Larry Sanger 16:33, 27 May 2007 (CDT)
I would not be completely opposed to discussing some political aspects of the controversy surrounding global warming. However, I don't necessarily agree the politics is what makes people care about global warming. I think it's the effects and the results of said warming that gets people's attention. And what I meant by "independent of political ideology," is that global warming will remain a fact whether you're liberal or conservative. Science is blind in this respect. You can be conservative or liberal as you want, and the science behind global warming isn't going to change. Benjamin Seghers 17:23, 27 May 2007 (CDT)

The politics of global warming

This section reads as if the USA is the center of the universe. :-) Do they have a Democratic Party in the UK and Belgium? Might be a good idea to simply begin by referencing the topic as say "In the USA . . . ." --Thomas Simmons 16:58, 27 May 2007 (CDT)

I agree we should not be so American- or Western-centric. Benjamin Seghers 17:24, 27 May 2007 (CDT)
Maybe we should add mentions of the Kyoto Protocol in a global perspective, it's an international treaty. Yi Zhe Wu 17:31, 27 May 2007 (CDT)

politics section

The politics section needs rewriting. Besides the U.S.-centricity, it also conflates a number of different issues into "global warming skepticism". I'll dig up some references later, but there are several different issues about which people have expressed skepticism:

  1. Whether global warming is actually occurring, or whether it is an artifact of how (and where) temperatures are measured. This issue has been resolved to most people's satisfaction, but only in the past 5 or so years.
  2. Whether global warming is anthropogenic. This is very much an open issue, as there is at least one other hypothesis (heliogenic global warming) which explains global warming, and the anthropogenic hypothesis does not explain observed warming on other planets.
  3. Whether there is a greenhouse effect with CO2. There are climate models which indicate that natural processes will add significantly to atmospheric CO2 if the temperature is increased for other reasons.
  4. The extent of the effects of global warming. Starting with the amount of warming which can reasonably be expected to occur, it's not clear what the actual effects will be, even including sea level rise (as some models predict very unevenly distributed changes in temperature, it's possible that the polar ice caps may not be affected much).
  5. Whether human actions can slow or reverse global warming. If global warming is not anthropogenic, then it's very unlikely that human activity can reverse it. In some models of anthropogenic global warming, it's not possible to do much about it anymore.

Of course, some of this skepticism should be reflected in the science portions of the article, as they revolve around unsettled scientific questions. Anthony Argyriou 16:36, 28 May 2007 (CDT)

May I advocate a method to approach those issues? That is, not all at once. Each of these points deserve full discussion, and it would be best in my view if each of these discussions could be settled before we start the next. --Nereo Preto 01:13, 29 May 2007 (CDT)
CO2 as a greenhouse gas is pretty much climatology 101. I think the evidence that temperatures are rising steadily due to greenhouse gas emissions is rather robust. There really aren't any viable alternative hypothesis that actually work to explain current warming. For example, simply saying solar variation is the culprit would be false because it's been shown that based solely on solar records, 20th century warming would be much lower than it actually was (Casper et al, 2007). The effects of global warming definitely merit much discussion and attention. And since global warming is mostly the result of human activity, mitigation through human activities is also possible. But even if weren't responsible, it would still be possible to mitigate warming. Mitigation techniques merit much discussion and attention. Of course, all of this can and should be addressed in the article. Benjamin Seghers 01:28, 29 May 2007 (CDT)
I should restate that - while CO2 is of course a greenhouse gas, it is not clear whether the change in temperatures are caused by increased CO2, or whether increased temperatures caused some of the increas in CO2 levels. Global temperatures declined from the 1940s to 1970s, while human output of CO2 increased substantially. A simple global warming model assuming that CO2 is the primary driver of climate change cannot account for that.
To respond to Nereo Preto, I think there are two different things which need to be addressed. The sections on the science of global warming need to indicate that there is still some dispute over the anthopogenicity of global warming, and on a variety of ancillary issues. The section on the politics of global warming can address the scientific disputes in a much more cursory fashion, and then proceed to the dispute over policy recommendations, where there are disputes over the correct course of action even if the "standard model" is entirely correct. I can spend some time looking up the scientific arguments against the anthropogenic model, but it'll take some time. Summarizing the skeptic's argument and discussing the politics is much easier for me to do. Anthony Argyriou 15:36, 29 May 2007 (CDT)
Actually, it's very clear. The 1940s-1970s cooling is explained by sulfate aerosols, which increase Earth's albedo (thus causing cooling). So while CO2 emissions were high during the era, the sulfate forcings outweighed those of CO2. After efforts to decrease the pollutants, aerosol emissions decreased, while CO2 continued to increase, hence the warming in the latter 1970s. I think we've already mentioned that are several individual scientists who refute these basic conclusions espoused by the rest of the climatology community, but there's no reason we can't expand on that. I also believe the politics section needs a complete reform (or no section at all, for the time being. See my thread above). Needless to say, I am interested in hearing any skeptic arguments that there are. Benjamin Seghers 17:12, 30 May 2007 (CDT)

Claims About Consensus section

Hi,

Bob Carter was referenced in a recent quote in the article. Professor Bob Carter is a researcher at the Marine Geophysical Laboratory at James Cook University. [2]

I googled Bob Carter and came up with some good sources

This collection of articles written by someone who is qualified in the field basically casts significant doubt on the purported scientific basis of the anthropogenic global warming theory. --Thomas Simmons 22:11, 30 May 2007 (CDT)

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