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Revision as of 07:49, 26 November 2011

Global warming

by Gareth Leng, Raymond Arritt, Robert Badgett, Milton Beychok, Greg Harris, Ed Poor, Nereo Preto, Anthony Sebastian, Benjamin Seghers, and Paul Wormer (and David Finn, Larry Sanger, and John Stephenson)

Annual average global warming by the year 2060 simulated and plotted as color differences using EdGCM

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation. There is strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring; this evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades is attributable to human activity, particularly the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.

Global average air temperature near the Earth's surface rose by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) from 1906 to 2005. The prevailing scientific view,

^[1] as represented by the science academies of the major industrialized nations^[2] and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,^[3] it is very likely that most of the temperature increase since the mid-20th century has been caused by increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations produced by human activity. Climate models predict that average global surface temperatures will increase by a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) by the end of the century, relative to 1980–1999.^[3] The range of values reflects differing assumptions of future greenhouse gas emissions and results of models that differ in their sensitivity to increases in greenhouse gases.^[3]

Scientists have not yet quantitatively assessed the potential self-accelerating effects of global-warming itself, either on threshold or rate. Melting of permafrost, for example, causes increased production and atmospheric release of such newly produced as well as anciently stored methane gas, which “….packs a far greater warming punch than [carbon dioxide] (CO₂),”^[4] possibly as much as 25 times that of CO₂ per unit mass.^[5]

An increase in global temperatures will cause the sea level to rise, glaciers to retreat, sea ice to melt, and changes in the amount, geographical distribution and seasonal pattern of precipitation. There may also be changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. These will have many practical consequences, including changes in agricultural yields and impacts on human health.^[6] Scientific uncertainties include the extent of climate change expected in the future, and how changes will vary around the globe. There is political and public debate about what action should be taken to reduce future warming or to adapt to its consequences. The Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, was adopted by 169 nations. .... (read more)

notes

↑ See Doran (2009) 'Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change' for information on a poll of research-active climate scientists, other researchers and the public regarding the scientific consensus on global warming Eos 90: 21-2
↑
Joint science academies’ statement: Global response to climate change
- "There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world’s climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2001). This warming has already led to changes in the Earth's climate."
↑ ^3.0 ^3.1 ^3.2
Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007).
- "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations...Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns"
↑ Walker G (2007) Climate Change 2007: A world melting from the top down Nature 446:718-21
↑ Simpson (2009) "The Peril Below the Ice" Scientific American Earth 3.0 pp 30-7
↑
Schneider et al. (2007). Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. In Parry ML et al. (eds) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press pp 779-810
- "There is new and stronger evidence of observed impacts of climate change on unique and vulnerable systems (such as polar and high-mountain communities and ecosystems), with increasing levels of adverse impacts as temperatures increase (very high confidence).
- There is new evidence that observed climate change is likely to have already increased the risk of certain extreme events such as heatwaves, and it is more likely than not that warming has contributed to the intensification of some tropical cyclones, with increasing levels of adverse impacts as temperatures increase (very high confidence).
- The distribution of impacts and vulnerabilities is still considered to be uneven, and low-latitude, less-developed areas are generally at greatest risk due to both higher sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity; but there is new evidence that vulnerability to climate change is also highly variable within countries, including developed countries."

[Doran-1] See Doran (2009) 'Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change' for information on a poll of research-active climate scientists, other researchers and the public regarding the scientific consensus on global warming Eos 90: 21-2

[academies-2] Joint science academies’ statement: Global response to climate change
"There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world’s climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2001). This warming has already led to changes in the Earth's climate."

[3] "There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world’s climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2001). This warming has already led to changes in the Earth's climate."

[grida7-3] 3.0 ^3.1 ^3.2 Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007).
"Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations...Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns"

[5] "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations...Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns"

[walker2007-4] Walker G (2007) Climate Change 2007: A world melting from the top down Nature 446:718-21

[simpson2009-5] Simpson (2009) "The Peril Below the Ice" Scientific American Earth 3.0 pp 30-7

[6] Schneider et al. (2007). Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. In Parry ML et al. (eds) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press pp 779-810
"There is new and stronger evidence of observed impacts of climate change on unique and vulnerable systems (such as polar and high-mountain communities and ecosystems), with increasing levels of adverse impacts as temperatures increase (very high confidence).

There is new evidence that observed climate change is likely to have already increased the risk of certain extreme events such as heatwaves, and it is more likely than not that warming has contributed to the intensification of some tropical cyclones, with increasing levels of adverse impacts as temperatures increase (very high confidence).

The distribution of impacts and vulnerabilities is still considered to be uneven, and low-latitude, less-developed areas are generally at greatest risk due to both higher sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity; but there is new evidence that vulnerability to climate change is also highly variable within countries, including developed countries."

[9] "There is new and stronger evidence of observed impacts of climate change on unique and vulnerable systems (such as polar and high-mountain communities and ecosystems), with increasing levels of adverse impacts as temperatures increase (very high confidence).

[10] There is new evidence that observed climate change is likely to have already increased the risk of certain extreme events such as heatwaves, and it is more likely than not that warming has contributed to the intensification of some tropical cyclones, with increasing levels of adverse impacts as temperatures increase (very high confidence).

[11] The distribution of impacts and vulnerabilities is still considered to be uneven, and low-latitude, less-developed areas are generally at greatest risk due to both higher sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity; but there is new evidence that vulnerability to climate change is also highly variable within countries, including developed countries."

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]

[6]

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-== '''[[Reuben sandwich]]''' ==
+== '''[[Global warming]]''' ==
-''by [[User:Hayford Peirce|Hayford Peirce]], [[User:Peter Schmitt|Peter Schmitt]] and [[User:Mary Ash|Mary Ash]] <small>(and [[User:Howard C. Berkowitz|Howard C. Berkowitz]])</small>''
+''by [[User:Gareth Leng|Gareth Leng]], [[User:Raymond Arritt|Raymond Arritt]], [[User:Robert Badgett|Robert Badgett]], [[User:Milton Beychok|Milton Beychok]], [[User:Greg Harris|Greg Harris]], [[User:Ed Poor|Ed Poor]], [[User:Nereo Preto|Nereo Preto]], [[User:Anthony Sebastian|Anthony Sebastian]], [[User:Benjamin Seghers|Benjamin Seghers]], and [[User:Paul Wormer|Paul Wormer]] <small>(and [[User:David Finn|David Finn]], [[User:Larry Sanger|Larry Sanger]], and [[User:John Stephenson|John Stephenson]])</small>''
 ----
-{{Image|Ruben sandwich.jpg|right|200px|Reuben sandwich}}
+[[Image:105582main GlobalWarming 2060 lg.jpg|right|thumb|Annual average global warming by the year 2060 simulated and plotted as color differences using EdGCM|250px]]
-A '''[[Reuben sandwich]]''' is usually made with [[rye]] bread, [[corned beef]], [[sauerkraut]], [[Swiss cheese]], and [[Russian dressing]] [[or Thousand Island dressing]], and is griddled, grilled, or fried and served hot. The corned beef is sometimes replaced with [[pastrami]] or thinly sliced [[ham]]; the sauerkraut is sometimes replaced with [[cole slaw]]; and sometimes the bread is toasted. In these, and similar cases, the [[sandwich]] is then frequently called a Rachel. Although generally served hot, it can also be served cold.
-The Reuben sandwich is part of American food folklore and is often associated with Jewish food traditions even though all its variants combine meat with cheese and therefore are not [[kosher]].
+'''[[Global warming]]''' is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation.  There is strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring; this evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades is attributable to human activity, particularly the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.
-=== Origin ===
+Global average air temperature near the Earth's surface rose by 0.74 ± 0.18&nbsp;°[[Celsius|C]] (1.33 ± 0.32&nbsp;°F) from 1906 to 2005. The prevailing scientific view,
-Conflicting stories exist about the origin of the sandwich.  The two main competing ones&mdash;both involving immigrants with Jewish roots&mdash;are:
+<ref name = Doran>See [http://tigger.uic.edu/~pdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdf Doran (2009)] 'Examining the Scientific Consensus
+on Climate Change' for information on a poll of research-active climate scientists, other researchers and the public regarding the scientific consensus on global warming ''Eos'' 90: 21-2</ref> as represented by the science academies of the major industrialized nations<ref name = "academies">[http://nationalacademies.org/onpi/06072005.pdf Joint science academies’ statement: Global response to climate change]
+*"There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world’s climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2001). This warming has already led to changes in the Earth's climate."</ref>
+and the ''[http://www.ipcc.ch/ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]'',<ref name=grida7>{{cite web | url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spm.html|title=Summary for Policymakers|work=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|date=2007}}
+*"Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations...Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns" </ref> it is very likely that most of the temperature increase since the mid-20th century has been caused by increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations produced by human activity. Climate models predict that average global surface temperatures will increase by a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) by the end of the century, relative to 1980–1999.<ref name=grida7/> The range of values reflects differing assumptions of future greenhouse gas emissions and results of models that differ in their sensitivity to increases in greenhouse gases.<ref name=grida7/>
-*The Reuben sandwich was named for Arnold Reuben, who, in the early part of the 20th century, owned the now-closed Reuben's delicatessen in New York.  Reuben reportedly created the sandwich to honor Annette Seelos, an actress, in 1914.
+Scientists have not yet quantitatively assessed the potential self-accelerating effects of global-warming itself, either on threshold or rate.  Melting of permafrost, for example, causes increased production and atmospheric release of such newly produced as well as anciently stored methane gas, which  “….packs a far greater warming punch than [carbon dioxide] (CO<sub>2</sub>),”<ref name=walker2007>Walker G (2007) [http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/446718a Climate Change 2007: A world melting from the top down] ''Nature'' 446:718-21</ref> possibly as much as 25 times that of CO<sub>2</sub> per unit mass.<ref name=simpson2009>Simpson (2009) [http://www.ScientificAmerican.com/Earth3 "The Peril Below the Ice"] ''Scientific American Earth 3.0'' pp 30-7</ref>
-*Alternatively, the sandwich was created by Reuben Kay, a Omaha, Nebraska, grocer, who made the sandwich during the course of a poker game. His sandwich then won a national contest the following year.
+An increase in global temperatures will cause the sea level to rise, glaciers to retreat, sea ice to melt, and changes in the amount, geographical distribution and seasonal pattern of precipitation. There may also be changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. These  will have many practical consequences, including changes in agricultural yields and impacts on human health.<ref>[http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch19s19-3-6.html Schneider ''et al.'' (2007)]. [http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch19.html Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change]. In Parry ML ''et al.'' (eds) ''[http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]'' Cambridge University Press pp 779-810
+*"There is new and stronger evidence of observed impacts of climate change on unique and vulnerable systems (such as polar and high-mountain communities and ecosystems), with increasing levels of adverse impacts as temperatures increase (very high confidence).
+*There is new evidence that observed climate change is likely to have already increased the risk of certain extreme events such as heatwaves, and it is more likely than not that warming has contributed to the intensification of some tropical cyclones, with increasing levels of adverse impacts as temperatures increase (very high confidence).
+*The distribution of impacts and vulnerabilities is still considered to be uneven, and low-latitude, less-developed areas are generally at greatest risk due to both higher sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity; but there is new evidence that vulnerability to climate change is also highly variable within countries, including developed countries." </ref> Scientific uncertainties include the extent of climate change expected in the future, and how changes will vary around the globe. There is political and public debate about what action should be taken to reduce future warming or to adapt to its consequences. The Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, was adopted by 169 nations.
+''[[Global warming|.... (read more)]]''
-In order to clarify the [[etymology]] of ''Reuben sandwich'' for the ''Random House College Dictionary'', which cited New York City as its origin, Jim Rader thoroughly researched the two claims after a 1989 complaint by a Nebraskan reader but without arriving at a definite answer.
+=== [[Global warming/References|notes]] ===
-''[[Reuben sandwich|.... (read more)]]''
+{{reflist|2}}

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Global warming

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