Recession of 2009/Addendum
Recent economic developments
2008 4th quarter
World
G20 leaders agree on need for fiscal stimulus [1]
The oil price falls. (December Brent North Sea crude $45/barrel, down fron July $147 peak)[2].
The United States
US economy in recession' - since December 2007 according to the National Bureau of Economic Research [3].
US consumer confidence falls to its lowest point since first measured in 1967.
US output falls - by 0.3% between second and third quarters of 2008 [4]
US interest rate reduced Federal Reserve Bank's benchmark rate cut to betweee 0 and 1/4% [5].
US unemployment rate the highest for 14 years - 6.7% in November 2008[6].
US consumer prices fall by 1% in October [7]
US congress fails to agree on fiscal stimulus [8][9] [10]
US Federal Reserve Bank's $800 billion support package [11]
US Federal Reserve Bank buys mortgage-backed securities - Bank promises to buy up to $500 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities guarantee by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and up to $100billion worth of their direct debt [12].
US Federal Reserve Bank's quantitative easing - Open market purchases raise base money (the Bank's balance sheet total) from $0.9 trillion to $2.2 trillion [13]
Eurozone
European Fiscal Stimulus EC Commission plans 1.5% GDP fiscal stimulus [14].
Eurozone interest rate cut - by the European Central Bank by 1.5 p points to 2.5% [15].
The United Kingdom
UK output falls - by 0.5% between second and third quarters of 2008 [16].
Bank of England slashes its discount rate by an unprecedented 2.5 p pt to 2 per cent.
UK Budget stimulus - discretionary public expenditure of 1.1% of GDP [17][18]
Investment banks cut lending - by over two-thirds between September and October [19]
Other European countries
Crises in Iceland, Hungary and Ukraine - to be tackled by loans from the International Monetary Fund
Sweden cuts interest rates - by 1.75 pt to 2.0% [20].
Asia
Recession in Japan - as output falls by 0.9% and 0.1% in 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2008.
Forecasts and outturns
- Annual percentage growth in Gross Domestic Product
- (forecasts are shown in italics)
Date Source Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 02 October 2008 International Monetary Fund [21]. United States 2.0 1.6 0.1 United Kingdom 3.0 1.0 -0.1 France 2.2 0.8 0.2 Japan 2.1 0.7 0.5 China 12 10 9 World 5.0 3.9 3.0 08 October 2008 Conference Board [22] United States 2.0 1.7 0.0 06 November 2008 International Monetary Fund [23]. United States 2.0 1.4 -0.7 Europe 2.6 1.2 -0.5 Japan 2.1 0.5 -0.2 China 12 9.7 8.5 World 5.0 3.7 2.2 08 November 2008 Economist poll [24] United States 2.0 1.4 -0.1 United Kingdom 3.0 0.9 -1.0 France 2.2 0.9 0.0 Japan 2.1 0.5 -0.1 13 November 2008 OECD [25] United States 2.0 1.4 -0.9 1.6 Japan 2.1 0.5 -0.1 0.6 Europe 2.6 1.1 -0.5 1.2
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