Recession of 2009/Addendum

Recent economic developments

2009, 1st quarter

World

World trade falls - by 9% in 2008 according to the World Bank [1].

Protection grows World Bank reports 47 trade restrictions by 17 G20 countries [2]

Developing countries lose exports [3].

IMF lending resources to increase - US proposes tripling them [4]

G20 Finance Ministers pledge further action [5]

The United States

Rising unemployment - 7.6% in January, 8.1% February.

Record budget deficit - $1.2 trillion 2009 deficit forecast by the Congressional Budget Office [6]. (Government spending expected to rise to 23% of GDP [7])

Major fiscal stimulus - proposed by President-elect Obama in his speech of 8 January [8][9]

Congress approves stimulus package - American Recovery and Reinvestment Act(H.R. 1) - a $839 billion stimulus package [10]

Financial Stability Plan - Government launches a plan intended to restore confidence in the financial system (including mandatory stress tests for major banks) and to provide financial assistance households and businesses[11]

Fears of Trade War – America First Steel Act, Homeland Security Comm. approves bill requiring federal agencies to use U.S. steel for public works projects, (HR 5935) [12] [13]

Money supply increase Federal Reserve to increase the size of its balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year, and to increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion. [14]

Washington's digression Outrage over AIG bonuses threatens to derail Obama's rescue plans [15]

Housing market bottoms out?. House sales rise by about 5% in February.

Public Private Partnership Investment Program announced [16] to purchase $1 trillion worth of toxic assets from banks.

Europe excluding UK

Industrial production falls - Eurozone index drops by 3.5% in January.

ECB Discount rate cut from 2.4% to 2% [17]

French industrial production plunges at an annual rate of 13% in January.

German output projected to fall by 2.5 percent in 2009[18].

Eastern Europe's economic crisis [19]

IMF's Hungary programme[20]

United Kingdom

Quantitative easing authorised[21]

Asset protection scheme[22]

Discount rate cut - from 2% to 1.0% [23].

IMF endorses UK policy IMF Deputy Managing Director says "There is no unique weakness in the UK economy, and we believe the measures taken ...will strengthen the economy over the medium term "[24].

Asia

China's falling growth rate [25]

Japan's exports halved - exports in January 2009 were 56% less than in January 2008 [26].

2009, 2nd quarter

United Kingdom

Consumer confidence falls to an all-time low [27].

Consumer confidence

	Japan	Italy	France	Germany	United States	United Kingdom
April 2009	89	96	94	94	94	92

Source: OECD Consumer confidence indicators [28]

Leading Indicators

	Japan	Italy	France	Germany	United States	United Kingdom	China	Russia
April 2009	90	97	96	90	90	97	90	87

Source: OECD Composite leading indicators [29]

Forecasts

Annual percentage growth in Gross Domestic Product

(forecasts are shown in italics)

Date	Source	Country	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
22 December 2008	World Bank [30]	United States	2.0	1.4	-0.5	2.0
		Japan	2.1	0.5	-0.1	1.5
		Euro area	2.6	1.1	-0.6	1.6
		China	12	9.4	7.5	8.5
		Developing	6.1	5.0	2.9	4.7
		World	3.7	2.5	0.9	3.0
28 January 2009	International Monetary Fund [31]	United States	2.0	1.1	-1.6	1.6
		United Kingdom	3.0	0.7	-2.8	0.2
		France	2.2	0.8	-1.9	0.7
		Japan	2.4	-0.3	-2.6	0.6
		China	13	9	6.7	8
		World	5.2	3.4	0.5	3.0
7 March 2009	Economist Poll [32]	United States			-2.2	1.9
		United Kingdom			-2.6	0.5
		France			-1.7	0.7
		Germany			-2.5	0.8
		Japan			-3.2	0.8
30 March 2009	World Bank [33]	United States	2.0	1.1	-2.4	2.0
		Japan	2.1	-0.7	-5.3	1.3
		Euro area	2.6	0.7	-2.7	0.9
		China	12	9.0	6.5	7.3
		Developing	6.1	5.8	2.2	4.8
		World	3.7	3.1	-0.6	2.9
31 March 2009	OECD Economic Outlook [34]	United States		1.1	-4.0	0
		United Kingdom		0.7	-3.7	-0.2
		France		0.7	-3.3	-0.1
		Germany		1.0	-5.3	0.2
		Japan		-0.6	-6.6	-0.5