Recession of 2009/Addendum: Difference between revisions

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==Selected economic statistics==


== Recent economic developments==
===Growth rates===


===2008 4th quarter===
:GDP at constant market prices<br>
::% change on previous period


====World====
::{|class="wikitable"
!
!colspan = "4"|
!colspan = "4"|2007
!colspan = "4"|2008
!colspan = "4"|2009
!colspan = "4"|2010
!colspan = "4"|2011
|-
!
! 2006
! 2007
! 2008
! 2009
!Q1
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4
!Q1
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4
!Q1
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4
!Q1
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4
!Q1
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4 
|-
|United States
| 2.8
| 2.0
| 0.4
| -2.4
| 0.0
| 1.2
| 1.6
| 0.0
| 0.2
| 0.7
| -0.1
| -1.4
| -1.2
| -0.2
| 0.4
| 1.2
| 0.9
| 0.9
| 0.6
| 0.6
| 0.1
| 0.3
| 0.5
| 0.7
|-
|Japan
| 2.0
| 2.4
| -0.6
| -5.3
| 1.0
| -0.3
| 0.4
| 1.0
| 0.3
| -1.2
| -0.4
| -3.2
| -4.2
|  1.7
|  0.1
| 1.1
| 1.2
| 1.3
| 0.6
| -0.6
| -1.8
| -0.3
| 1.7
| -0.2
|-
|Canada
| 3.1
| 2.7
| 0.5
| -2.6
| 1.0
| 1.0
| 0.6
| 0.2
| -0.2
| 0.1
| 0.2
| 0.8
| -1.4
| -0.6
| 0.1
| 1.2
| 1.5
| 0.6
| 0.6
| 0.8
| 0.9
| -0.2
| 1.0
| 0.4
|-
|United Kingdom
| 2.8
| 3.0
| 0.7
| -4.8
| 0.8
| 0.8
| 0.6
| 0.9
| 0.3
| 0.0
| -0.7
| -1.6
| -2.3
| -0.7
| -0.3
|  0.4
|  0.4
|  1.1
|  0.7
| -0.5
|  0.2
| -0.1 
|  0.6
| -0.3
|-
|Germany
| 3.0
| 2.5
| 1.3
| -5.0
| 0.4
| 0.4
| 0.6
| 0.3
| 1.5
| -0.5
| -0.5
| -2.1
| -3.4
|  0.5
|  0.7
|  0.3
|  0.6
|  1.9
|  0.8
|  0.5
| 1.3
| 0.3
| 0.6
| -0.2
|-
|France
| 2.2
| 2.2
| 0.8
| -2.3
| 0.6
| 0.5
| 0.7
| 0.4
| 0.4
| -0.3
| 0.1
| -1.1
| -1.5
|  0.1
|  0.3
|  0.6
|  0.2
|  0.7
|  0.4
|  0.4
| 0.9
| 0.0
| 0.3
| 0.2
|-
|Italy
| 2.0
| 1.6
| -1.0
| -5.0
| 0.2
| 0.1
| 0.2
| -0.3
| 0.3
| -0.6
| -0.7
| -2.1
| -2.9
| -0.3
| 0.4
| -0.1
|  0.4
|  0.5
|  0.2
|  0.2
|  0.1
|  0.3
| -0.2
| -0.7
|}
::(Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators)


:'''G20 leaders agree on need for fiscal stimulus [http://en.citizendium.org/wiki/G20_summit/Addendum]
===Consumer prices===
: percentage increase on the same period of the previous year


====The United States====
:::::::{|class = "wikitable"


:'''Output  falls'''  - gdp falls at an annualised rate of 6.2%
! colspan = "3"|
! colspan = "4"| 2009
|-
!
! 2008
! 2009
! &nbsp;Mar&nbsp;
! &nbsp;Jun&nbsp;
! &nbsp;Sep&nbsp;
! &nbsp;Dec&nbsp;
|-
! United States
| align = "center"| 3.8
| align = "center"|-0.4
| align = "center"|-0.4
| align = "center"|-1.4
| align = "center"|-1.3
| align = "center"|2.7
|-
! United Kingdom
| align = "center"| 3.6
| align = "center"| 2.2
| align = "center"| 2.9
| align = "center"| 1.8
| align = "center"| 1.1
| align = "center"| 2.8
|-
! France
| align = "center"| 2.8
| align = "center"| 0.1
| align = "center"| 0.3
| align = "center"| -0.5
| align = "center"| -0.4
| align = "center"| 0.9
|-
! Germany
| align = "center"| 2.6
| align = "center"| 0.4
| align = "center"| 0.5
| align = "center"| 0.1
| align = "center"| -0.3
| align = "center"| 0.9
|-
! Italy
| align = "center"| 3.3
| align = "center"| 0.8
| align = "center"| 1.2
| align = "center"| 0.5
| align = "center"| 0.2
| align = "center"| 1.3
|-
! Japan
| align = "center"| 1.4
| align = "center"| -1.4
| align = "center"| -0.3
| align = "center"| -1.8
| align = "center"| -2.2
| align = "center"| -1.3
|-
! G7 countries
| align = "center"| 3.2
| align = "center"| -0.1
| align = "center"| -0.1
| align = "center"| -0.9
| align = "center"| -1.0
| align = "center"|  1.8
|}


:'''Unemployment soars''' -  the  rate  the highest for 14 years -  6.7% in November 2008[http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/bbemp-20081205.pdf].
: (Source OECD[http://www.oecd.org/document/57/0,3343,en_2649_33715_44523833_1_1_1_1,00.html] )
<small>
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
</small>
===Unemployment rates===
: OECD harmonised rates
:: %  seasonally adjusted)


:'''Deflation''' - consumer prices  - by 1% in October [http://www.bls.gov/CPI/]and 1.7% in November [http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/16/news/economy/cpi/index.htm]
:::::::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!colspan = "3"|
!colspan = "4"|2009
|-
!align="center"|
!align="center"| 2007
!align="center"| 2008
!align="center"| 2009
!align="center"| &nbsp; Q1&nbsp;
!align="center"| &nbsp; Q2&nbsp;
!align="center"| &nbsp; Q3&nbsp;
!align="center"| &nbsp; Q4&nbsp;
|-
|align="center"| United States
|align="center"| 4.6
|align="center"| 5.8
|align="center"| 9.3
|align="center"| 8.2
|align="center"| 9.3
|align="center"| 9.7
|align="center"| 10.0
|-
|align="center"| United Kingdom
|align="center"| 5.3
|align="center"| 5.5
|align="center"| 7.6
|align="center"| 7.1
|align="center"| 7.7
|align="center"| 7.8
|align="center"| 7.7
|-
|align="center"|Japan
|align="center"| 3.9
|align="center"| 4.0
|align="center"| 5.1
|align="center"| 4.5
|align="center"| 5.1
|align="center"| 5.1
|align="center"| 5.2
|-
|align="center"|Germany
|align="center"| 8.4
|align="center"| 7.3
|align="center"| 7.5
|align="center"| 7.3
|align="center"| 7.6
|align="center"| 7.6
|align="center"| 7.5
|-
|align="center"|France
|align="center"| 8.3
|align="center"| 7.9
|align="center"| 9.4
|align="center"| 8.9
|align="center"| 9.3
|align="center"| 9.5
|align="center"| 10.0
|}


:'''$800 billion support package''' [http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/26/business/economy/26fed.html?bl&ex=1227848400&en=5a50becfbe5bac73&ei=5087%0A]
:: (Source: OECD)[http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/20/21/44746304.pdf]
::Federal Reserve  buys mortgage-backed securities - Bank promises to buy up to $500 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities guarantee by Fannie  Mae and Freddie Mac and up to $100billion worth of their direct debt [http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12689745].
<small>
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
</small>


:'''Quantitative easing''' -  Fed's open market purchases raise base money (the Bank's balance sheet total)  from $0.9 trillion to $2.2 trillion [http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122948091644013041.html]
===Commodity prices===


:''' Record national debt'' - it reaches 72.5% 0f GDP'''[http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/economics/list-of-national-debt-by-country/]
IMF Index of Primary Commodity Prices,
(2005=100, in terms of US dollars)


====Europe except UK====
:::::::{|class = "wikitable"
| colspan = "4" align = "center"|2007
| colspan = "4" align = "center"|2008
| colspan = "4" align = "center"|2009
|-
| Q1
| Q2
| Q3
| Q4
| Q1
| Q2
| Q3
| Q4
| Q1
| Q2
| Q3
| Q4
|-
| 118
| 130
| 137
| 154
| 172
| 203
| 197
| 117
| 99
| 114
| 126
| 136
|}


:::(Source: IMF [http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/table1a.pdf])


====The United Kingdom====
===The oil price===
:'''Output falls''' - gdp falls by 0.5% between second and third quarters of 2008 [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7686552.stm] and by 1.5% between 3rd and 4th quarters [http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192].
The price of crude oil on the New York Stock Exchange ($/barrel[http://www.nyse.tv/crude-oil-price-history.htm])
:::::::{|class = "wikitable"
!colspan = "2"|2007
!colspan = "2"|2008
!colspan = "2"| 2009
!colspan = "2"| 2010
|-
| January
| &nbsp;&nbsp;June&nbsp;&nbsp;
| January
| &nbsp;&nbsp;June&nbsp;&nbsp;
| January
| &nbsp;&nbsp;June&nbsp;&nbsp;
| January
| &nbsp;&nbsp;June&nbsp;&nbsp;
|-
|align="center"| 56
|align="center"| 65
|align="center"| 98
|align="center"| 139
|align="center"| 46
|align="center"| 68
|align="center"| 83
|align="center"| 72
|}


:'''Budget stimulus''' - government proposes discretionary public expenditure of 1.1% of GDP [http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/pbr08_chapter1_379.pdf][http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12670326]
===World trade===
: OECD  trade in goods and services
:: % value change on previous quarter (priced in US$).


:'''national debt reaches 43.6% of GDP''' [http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/uk-economy/uk-national-debt/comment-page-1/]
:::::::{|class="wikitable"
!
!colspan = "4"|2008
!colspan = "4"|2009
!colspan = "4"|2010
|-
!
!Q1
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4
!Q1
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4
!Q1
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4
|-
!Exports
| 5.6
| 5.6
| -3.0
| -18.4
| -12.7
| 1.8
| 7.5
| 7.6
| 0.6
|
|
|
|-
!Imports
|6.2
|5.2
| -2.0
| -18.5
| -14.3
| -0.5
| 8.1
| 6.2
| 2.5
|
|
|
|}


====Asia====
::(Source: OECD economic indicators[http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/10/47/44479849.pdf])
:'''Recession in Japan'''  GDP fell 3.3% from Q3 to Q4 2008 [http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Japan-Q4-GDP-to-post-worst-fall-since-1974--BarCap-MTFHY?opendocument&src=rss]. 
<small>
:'''Australian economy shrinks 0.5% '''[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7922739.stm]
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
:'''Developing countries in recession''' GDP probably fell by an average annualised rate of around 15% in Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan [http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13022067]
</small>


===2009, 1st quarter===
==Policy Actions==


====World====
===Central bank measures===
:G7 Finance Ministers endorse fiscal stimulus policy [http://www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/media-centre/latest-news/?view=News&id=13585064]


====The United States====
:::{|class = "wikitable"
:'''Rising unemployment''' - 7.6% in January, 8.1% February.
!
! Federal Reserve Bank
! European Central Bank
! &nbsp;&nbsp;Bank of Japan&nbsp;&nbsp;
! &nbsp;&nbsp;Bank of England&nbsp;&nbsp;
|-
! Lowering policy rates
to very low levels
|Align = "center"|X
|Align = "center"|De facto
|Align = "center"|X
|Align = "center"|X
|-
! Increasing liquidity provision
to financial institutions
|Align = "center"|X
|Align = "center"|X
|Align = "center"|X
|Align = "center"|X
|-
! Intervening directly in wider
segments of the financial market
|Align = "center"|X
|Align = "center"|X
|Align = "center"|X
|Align = "center"|X
|-
! Purchasing long-term
government bonds
|Align = "center"|X
|Align = "center"|
|Align = "center"|X
|Align = "center"|X
|-
!Supporting specific
institutions
|Align = "center"|X
|Align = "center"|
|Align = "center"|X
|Align = "center"|X
|}


:'''Record  budget deficit''' -  $1.2 trillion 2009 deficit forecast by the Congressional Budget Office [http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9957/01-07-Outlook.pdf]. (Government spending expected to rise to 23% of GDP [http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article5536320.ece])
:Source: OECD Economics Working Papper No 753 February 2010[http://www.oecdilibrary.org/docserver/download/fulltext/5kml6xm7qgs6.pdf?expires=1271935601&id=0000&accname=freeContent&checksum=4409F41DDF3E1725FB09A73F274F2806]
:'''Major fiscal stimulus''' - proposed by President-elect Obama in his speech of 8 January [http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/58ee3966-dd9d-11dd-930e-000077b07658.html][http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7874407.stm]
<small>
::Congress approves stimulus package - American Recovery and Reinvestment Act(H.R. 1) - a $839 billion stimulus package [http://www.recovery.gov/]
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
:'''Financial Stability Plan''' - Government launches a plan intended to restore confidence in the financial system (including mandatory stress tests for major banks)  and to provide financial assistance households and businesses[http://www.financialstability.gov/docs/fact-sheet.pdf]
</small>
:'''Fears of Trade War''' –  America First Steel Act, Homeland Security Comm. approves bill requiring federal agencies to use U.S. steel for public works projects, (HR 5935) [http://www.bna.com/current/itr/topl.htm] [http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/industrials/article5587443.ece]
===[[Fiscal stimulus]] packages===
: % of GDP


====Eurozone====
:::::::::{|class = "wikitable"
:'''Discount  rate cut''' from 2.4% to  2% [http://www.ecb.int/stats/monetary/rates/html/index.en.html#data]
!
====United Kingdom====
!align="center"| 2008
:'''Discount  rate cut''' - from 2% to 1.0% [http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2009/001.htm].
!align="center"| 2009
:'''IMF endorses policy''' IMF  Deputy Managing Director says "There is no unique weakness in the UK economy, and we believe the measures taken ...will strengthen the economy over the medium term "[http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5627450.ece].
!align="center"| 2010
 
!align="center"| Total
:'''Asset protection scheme'''[http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/press_07_09.htm]
====Asia====
: '''China's falling growth rate''' [http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,contentMDK:22092584~menuPK:51340323~pagePK:64257043~piPK:437376~theSitePK:4607,00.html]
: '''Japan's exports halved''' - exports  in January 2009 were  56% less than in January 2008 [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7931806.stm].
 
===2009, 2nd quarter===
 
====World====
: '''World economy  to shrink''' - according to World Bank report [http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,contentMDK:22092584~menuPK:51340323~pagePK:64257043~piPK:437376~theSitePK:4607,00.htmlhttp://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,contentMDK:22092584~menuPK:51340323~pagePK:64257043~piPK:437376~theSitePK:4607,00.html]<br>
:'''' Developing countries lose exports''' [http://siteresources.worldbank.org/NEWS/Resources/swimmingagainstthetide-march2009.pdf].
 
====United States====
 
====Europe except UK====
 
 
 
====United Kingdom====
: '''Quantitative easing starts''' - Bank of England Reduces Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points to 0.5% and announces £75 Billion Asset Purchase Programme [http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2009/019.htm].
 
====Asia====
:'''China faces a difficult year'''[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7925193.stm]
 
==Forecasts and outturns==
 
:::'''Annual percentage growth in Gross Domestic Product'''
 
:::(forecasts are shown in ''italics'')
 
:::{|class="wikitable"
!Date
!Source
!Country
! 2007
! 2008
! 2009
! 2010
! 2011
|-
|-
|22 December 2008
|align="center"|United States
|World Bank [http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTGEP2009/Resources/10363_WebPDF-w47.pdf]
|align="center"|1.1
|United States
|align="center"|2.0
|2.0
|align="center"|1.8
|''1.4''
|align="center"|4.8
|''-0.5''
|''2.0''
|-
|-
|
|align="center"|United Kingdom
|
|align="center"|0.2
|Japan
|align="center"|1.4
|2.1
|align="center"|-0.1
|''0.5''
|align="center"|1.5
|''-0.1''
|''1.5''
|-
|-
|
|align="center"|Germany
|
|align="center"|0.0
|Euro area
|align="center"|1.5
|2.6
|align="center"|2.0
|''1.1''
|align="center"|3.4
|''-0.6''
|''1.6''
|-
|-
|
|align="center"|France
|
|align="center"|0.0
|China
|align="center"|0.7
|12
|align="center"|0.7
|''9.4''
|align="center"|1.3
|''7.5''
|''8.5''
|-
|-
|
|align="center"|Japan
|
|align="center"|0.4
|Developing <ref> Developing countries except China and India.</ref>
|align="center"|1.4
|6.1
|align="center"|0.4
|''5.0''
|align="center"|2.2
|''2.9''
|''4.7''
|-
|-
|
|align="center"|Canada
|
|align="center"|0.0
| World
|align="center"|1.5
|3.7
|align="center"|1.3
|''2.5''
|align="center"|2.7
|''0.9''
|''3.0''
|-
|-
| 28 January 2009
|align="center"|China
| International Monetary Fund [http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/01/index.htm]
|align="center"|0.4
| United States
|align="center"|2.0
|2.0
|align="center"|2.0
|1.1
|align="center"|4.4
|''-1.6''
|}
|''1.6''
 
::(Source: IMF estimates February 2009 [http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2009/020109.pdf])
<small>
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
</small>
==Debt==
 
===Public debt estimates===
:([[National debt]]
:: % of GDP )
 
:::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Japan&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Italy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; France&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; Germany &nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"| United States
!align="center"| United Kingdom
!align="center"| Average <ref> average of advanced G20 countries</ref>
|-
|-
|
|2007
|
|align="center"|188
| United Kingdom
|align="center"|104
|3.0
|align="center"|64
|0.7
|align="center"|63
|''-2.8''
|align="center"|62
|''0.2''
|align="center"|44
|align="center"|78
|-
|-
|
|2009
|
|align="center"|217
| France
|align="center"|117
| 2.2
|align="center"|77
| 0.8
|align="center"|80
| ''-1.9''
|align="center"|89
| ''0.7''
|align="center"|69
|align="center"|101
|-
|-
|
|2010
|
|align="center"|219
| Japan
|align="center"|116
| 2.4
|align="center"|78
| -0.3
|align="center"|79
| ''-2.6''
|align="center"|85
| ''0.6''
|align="center"|69
|align="center"|99
|-
|-
|
|2014
|
|align="center"|246
| China
|align="center"|129
| 13
|align="center"|96
| 9
|align="center"|89
| ''6.7''
|align="center"|108
| ''8''
|align="center"|98
|align="center"|118
|}
 
:::::<references/>
 
::(Source: IMF Staff Position Note November 2009 [https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2009/spn0925.pdf])
<small>
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
</small>
===Total debt===
 
: % of GDP 2008
 
:::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!align="center"| United Kingdom
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Japan&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; France&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Italy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"| United States
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; Germany &nbsp;&nbsp;
|-
|-
|
!Government
|
|align="center"|52
| World
|align="center"|188
| 5.2
|align="center"|73
| ''3.4''
|align="center"|101
| ''0.5''
|align="center"|60
| ''3.0''
|align="center"|69
|-
|-
| 7 March 2009
!Financial institutions
| ''Economist''  Poll [http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13240271]
|align="center"|202
| United States
|align="center"|108
|
|align="center"|81
|
|align="center"|77
| -''2.2''
|align="center"|56
| ''1.9''
|align="center"|76
|-
|-
|
!Non-financial businesses
|
|align="center"|114
| United Kingdom
|align="center"|96
|
|align="center"|110
|
|align="center"|81
| ''-2.6''
|align="center"|78
| ''0.5''
|align="center"|66
|-
|-
|
!Households
|
|align="center"|101
| France
|align="center"|67
|
|align="center"|44
|
|align="center"|40
| ''-1.7''
|align="center"|56
| ''0.7''
|align="center"|47
|-
|-
|
!Total
|
|align="center"|469
| Germany
|align="center"|459
|
|align="center"|308
|
|align="center"|298
| ''-2.5''
|align="center"|290
| ''0.8''
|align="center"|274
|-
|-
|
! % growth 2000-08
|
|align="center"|10.2
| Japan
|align="center"|0.3
|
|align="center"|7.7
|
|align="center"|6.3
| ''-3.2''
|align="center"|8.1
| ''0.8''
|align="center"|2.5
|}
|}
:(Source: ''Debt and Deleverageing, the Global Credit Bubble and its Consequences'', McKinsey, 2010[http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/reports/freepass_pdfs/debt_and_deleveraging/debt_and_deleveraging_full_report.pdf])
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[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
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<references/>
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Latest revision as of 06:11, 24 April 2012

Selected economic statistics

Growth rates

GDP at constant market prices
% change on previous period
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2006 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
United States 2.8 2.0 0.4 -2.4 0.0 1.2 1.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 -0.1 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7
Japan 2.0 2.4 -0.6 -5.3 1.0 -0.3 0.4 1.0 0.3 -1.2 -0.4 -3.2 -4.2 1.7 0.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.6 -0.6 -1.8 -0.3 1.7 -0.2
Canada 3.1 2.7 0.5 -2.6 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 -1.4 -0.6 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 -0.2 1.0 0.4
United Kingdom 2.8 3.0 0.7 -4.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 -0.7 -1.6 -2.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.7 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.6 -0.3
Germany 3.0 2.5 1.3 -5.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 1.5 -0.5 -0.5 -2.1 -3.4 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.5 1.3 0.3 0.6 -0.2
France 2.2 2.2 0.8 -2.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 -0.3 0.1 -1.1 -1.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.3 0.2
Italy 2.0 1.6 -1.0 -5.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -2.1 -2.9 -0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.7
(Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators)

Consumer prices

percentage increase on the same period of the previous year
2009
2008 2009  Mar   Jun   Sep   Dec 
United States 3.8 -0.4 -0.4 -1.4 -1.3 2.7
United Kingdom 3.6 2.2 2.9 1.8 1.1 2.8
France 2.8 0.1 0.3 -0.5 -0.4 0.9
Germany 2.6 0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.3 0.9
Italy 3.3 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 1.3
Japan 1.4 -1.4 -0.3 -1.8 -2.2 -1.3
G7 countries 3.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.9 -1.0 1.8
(Source OECD[1] )

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Unemployment rates

OECD harmonised rates
% seasonally adjusted)
2009
2007 2008 2009   Q1    Q2    Q3    Q4 
United States 4.6 5.8 9.3 8.2 9.3 9.7 10.0
United Kingdom 5.3 5.5 7.6 7.1 7.7 7.8 7.7
Japan 3.9 4.0 5.1 4.5 5.1 5.1 5.2
Germany 8.4 7.3 7.5 7.3 7.6 7.6 7.5
France 8.3 7.9 9.4 8.9 9.3 9.5 10.0
(Source: OECD)[2]

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Commodity prices

IMF Index of Primary Commodity Prices, (2005=100, in terms of US dollars)

2007 2008 2009
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
118 130 137 154 172 203 197 117 99 114 126 136
(Source: IMF [3])

The oil price

The price of crude oil on the New York Stock Exchange ($/barrel[4])

2007 2008 2009 2010
January   June   January   June   January   June   January   June  
56 65 98 139 46 68 83 72

World trade

OECD trade in goods and services
% value change on previous quarter (priced in US$).
2008 2009 2010
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Exports 5.6 5.6 -3.0 -18.4 -12.7 1.8 7.5 7.6 0.6
Imports 6.2 5.2 -2.0 -18.5 -14.3 -0.5 8.1 6.2 2.5
(Source: OECD economic indicators[5])

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Policy Actions

Central bank measures

Federal Reserve Bank European Central Bank   Bank of Japan     Bank of England  
Lowering policy rates

to very low levels

X De facto X X
Increasing liquidity provision

to financial institutions

X X X X
Intervening directly in wider

segments of the financial market

X X X X
Purchasing long-term

government bonds

X X X
Supporting specific

institutions

X X X
Source: OECD Economics Working Papper No 753 February 2010[6]

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Fiscal stimulus packages

% of GDP
2008 2009 2010 Total
United States 1.1 2.0 1.8 4.8
United Kingdom 0.2 1.4 -0.1 1.5
Germany 0.0 1.5 2.0 3.4
France 0.0 0.7 0.7 1.3
Japan 0.4 1.4 0.4 2.2
Canada 0.0 1.5 1.3 2.7
China 0.4 2.0 2.0 4.4
(Source: IMF estimates February 2009 [7])

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Debt

Public debt estimates

(National debt
% of GDP )
   Japan       Italy       France      Germany    United States United Kingdom Average [1]
2007 188 104 64 63 62 44 78
2009 217 117 77 80 89 69 101
2010 219 116 78 79 85 69 99
2014 246 129 96 89 108 98 118
  1. ↑ average of advanced G20 countries
    2. (Source: IMF Staff Position Note November 2009 [8])

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    Total debt

    % of GDP 2008
    United Kingdom    Japan       France       Italy     United States    Germany   
    Government 52 188 73 101 60 69
    Financial institutions 202 108 81 77 56 76
    Non-financial businesses 114 96 110 81 78 66
    Households 101 67 44 40 56 47
    Total 469 459 308 298 290 274
    % growth 2000-08 10.2 0.3 7.7 6.3 8.1 2.5
    (Source: Debt and Deleverageing, the Global Credit Bubble and its Consequences, McKinsey, 2010[9])

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