Recession of 2009/Tutorials: Difference between revisions

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imported>Nick Gardner
imported>Nick Gardner
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*                              * May  
::::::::::::::::::::::::                          * May  


: (Source: OECD)[http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/11/58/43687940.pdf]
: (Source: OECD)[http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/11/58/43687940.pdf]

Revision as of 05:36, 8 October 2009

Selected economic statistics

Growth rates

GDP at constant market prices
% change on previous period

2006 2007 2008 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 04 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09
United States 2.8 2.0 1.1 0.0 1.2 1.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 -0.1 -1.4 -1.6 -0.2
Japan 2.0 2.4 -0.6 1.0 -0.3 0.4 1.0 0.3 -1.2 -0.4 -3.2 -3.3 0.6
Canada 3.1 2.7 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 -1.4
United Kingdom 2.8 3.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 -0.7 -1.6 -2.4 -0.6
Germany 3.0 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 1.5 -0.5 -0.5 -2.1 -3.8 0.3
France 2.2 2.2 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 -0.3 0.1 -1.1 -1.2 0.3
Italy 2.0 1.6 -1.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -2.1 -2.4

Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators

Unemployment rates

(ILO definition, seasonally adjusted)
2007 IV 2008 I 2008 II 2008 III 2008 IV 2009 I 2009 II
United States 4.8 4.9 5.4 6.0 6.9 8.1 8.2
United Kingdom 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.8 6.3 7.1 7.7*
Japan 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.5 5.2
Germany 8.0 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.7 7.6
France 7.8 7.6 7.7 7.8 8.3 8.8 9.4
* May
(Source: OECD)[1]

Fiscal stimulus packages

( % of GDP)
2008 2009 2010 Total
United States 1.1 2.0 1.8 4.8
United Kingdom 0.2 1.4 -0.1 1.5
Germany 0.0 1.5 2.0 3.4
France 0.0 0.7 0.7 1.3
Japan 0.4 1.4 0.4 2.2
Canada 0.0 1.5 1.3 2.7
(Source: IMF estimates February 2009 [2])

Public Debt

( % of GDP )
   Japan       Italy       France      Germany    United States United Kingdom Average [1]
2007 195 107 65 65 62 44 79
2009 217 117 77 80 89 69 101
2010 226 123 84 87 100 82 110
2014 239 132 95 91 112 100 120
  1. average of advanced G20 countries
  2. (Source: The State of Public Finances: A Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor, IMF Staff Position Note SPN/09/, 21July 30 2009, [3])

    Leading Indicators

    Ratio to trend, amplitude adjusted, per cent
    (long-term average = 100)
    Growth cycle phases of the CLI are defined as follows: expansion (increase above 100), downturn (decrease above 100), slowdown (decrease below100), recovery (increase below 100).

       Japan       Italy       France      Germany    United States United Kingdom   China     Russia  
    January 2009 91.2 96.2 96.3 90.7 91.3 96.3 91.7 88.2
    February 2009 90.2 96.3 96.7 90.3 90.9 96.3 92.6 87.0
    March 2009 89.4 97.3 97.8 90.2 90.7 96.7 93.4 86.2
    April 2009 88.7 98.8 99.0 91.0 91.2 97.5 94.6 86.2
    May 2009 89.5 101.1 100.3 93.8 92.7 98.3 96.3 88.2
    June 2009 95.5 103.3 101.6 95.5 93.9 99.4 97.1 89.4
    Change


    Source: OECD Composite leading indicators [4]

    Forecasts

    Annual percentage growth in Gross Domestic Product
    (forecasts are shown in italics)
    Date Source Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
    30 March 2009 World Bank [5] United States 2.0 1.1 -2.4 2.0
    Japan 2.1 -0.7 -5.3 1.3
    Euro area 2.6 0.7 -2.7 0.9
    China 12 9.0 6.5 7.3
    Developing [1] 6.1 5.8 2.2 4.8
    World 3.7 3.1 -0.6 2.9
    9 May 2009 Economist Poll [6] United States -2.9 1.4
    United Kingdom -3.7 0.3
    France -2.9 0.3
    Germany -5.2 0.3
    Japan -6.4 0.6
    1 June 2009 OECD Economic Outlook [7] United States 1.1 -2.8 0.9
    United Kingdom 0.7 -4.3 0.0
    France 0.7 -3.0 -0.2
    Germany 1.0 -6.1 0.2
    Japan -0.6 -6.8 0.7
    3 October 2009 International Monetary Fund [8] United States 2.0 0.8 -2.7 1.5
    United Kingdom 3.0 0.7 -4.4 0.9
    France 2.1 0.3 -2.4 0.9
    Germany 2.5 1.3 -5.3 -0.3
    Japan 2.4 -0.7 -5.4 1.7'
    China 13 9 8.5 9.0
    World 3.8 3.1 -1.1 3.1


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