Recession of 2009/Addendum

National growth rates in OECD countries
GDP at constant market prices % change on previous period


 * {|class="wikitable"

! ! 2006 ! 2007 ! 2008 ! !Q1 07 !Q2 07 !Q3 07 !Q4 04 ! !Q1 08 !Q2 08 !Q3 08 !Q4 08 ! !Q1 09
 * United States
 * 2.8
 * 2.0
 * 1.1
 * 0.0
 * 1.2
 * 1.6
 * 0.0
 * 0.2
 * 0.7
 * -0.1
 * -1.6
 * -1.6
 * Japan
 * 2.0
 * 2.4
 * -0.6
 * 1.0
 * -0.3
 * 0.4
 * 1.0
 * 0.3
 * -1.2
 * -0.4
 * -3.2
 * Canada
 * 3.1
 * 2.7
 * 0.5
 * 1.0
 * 1.0
 * 0.6
 * 0.2
 * -0.2
 * 0.1
 * 0.2
 * 0.8
 * United Kingdom
 * 2.8
 * 3.0
 * 0.7
 * 0.8
 * 0.8
 * 0.6
 * 0.9
 * 0.3
 * 0.0
 * -0.7
 * -1.6
 * -1.9
 * Germany
 * 3.0
 * 2.5
 * 1.3
 * 0.4
 * 0.4
 * 0.6
 * 0.3
 * 1.5
 * -0.5
 * -0.5
 * -2.1
 * France
 * 2.2
 * 2.2
 * 0.8
 * 0.6
 * 0.5
 * 0.7
 * 0.4
 * 0.4
 * -0.3
 * 0.1
 * -1.1
 * Italy
 * 2.0
 * 1.6
 * -1.0
 * 0.2
 * 0.1
 * 0.2
 * -0.3
 * 0.3
 * -0.6
 * -0.7
 * -1.9
 * }
 * 2.2
 * 2.2
 * 0.8
 * 0.6
 * 0.5
 * 0.7
 * 0.4
 * 0.4
 * -0.3
 * 0.1
 * -1.1
 * Italy
 * 2.0
 * 1.6
 * -1.0
 * 0.2
 * 0.1
 * 0.2
 * -0.3
 * 0.3
 * -0.6
 * -0.7
 * -1.9
 * }
 * -0.3
 * 0.3
 * -0.6
 * -0.7
 * -1.9
 * }
 * }
 * }
 * }

Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators - and national statistics for Q1 09.

World

 * World trade falls - by 9% in 2008 according to the World Bank.
 * Protection grows World Bank reports 47 trade restrictions by 17 G20 countries
 *  Developing countries lose exports.
 * IMF lending resources to increase - US proposes tripling them
 * G20 Finance Ministers pledge further action

The United States

 * Rising unemployment - 7.6% in January, 8.1% February.
 * Record budget deficit -  $1.2 trillion 2009 deficit forecast by the Congressional Budget Office . (Government spending expected to rise to 23% of GDP )
 * Major fiscal stimulus - proposed by President-elect Obama in his speech of 8 January
 * Congress approves stimulus package - American Recovery and Reinvestment Act(H.R. 1) - a $839 billion stimulus package
 * Financial Stability Plan - Government launches a plan intended to restore confidence in the financial system (including mandatory stress tests for major banks) and to provide financial assistance households and businesses
 * Fears of Trade War – America First Steel Act, Homeland Security Comm. approves bill requiring federal agencies to use U.S. steel for public works projects, (HR 5935)
 * Money supply increase Federal Reserve to increase the size of its balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year, and to increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion.
 * Washington's digression Outrage over AIG bonuses threatens to derail Obama's rescue plans
 * Housing market bottoms out?. House sales rise by about 5% in February.
 * Public Private Partnership Investment Program  announced to purchase $1 trillion worth of toxic assets from banks.

Europe excluding UK

 * Industrial production falls - Eurozone index drops by 3.5% in January.
 * ECB Discount rate cut from 2.4% to  2%
 * French industrial production plunges at an annual rate of 13% in January.
 * German output projected to fall by 2.5 percent in 2009.
 * Eastern Europe's economic crisis
 * IMF's Hungary programme

United Kingdom

 * Falling industrial production - output decreased by 5.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2009 compared with the previous quarter and fell 12.1 per cent against the first quarter of 2008.
 * Fiscal stimulus:a stimulus package was announced in the November Pre-Budget Report, the main elements being a temporary reduction of the rate of value-added tax  from 17.5% to 15%,  a bringing forward of £3 billion of capital investment, and a range of minor tax reductions. The resulting discretionary fiscal easing (1.4% of GDP in 2009) together with the much larger effects of the automatic stabilisers was expected to raise the fiscal deficit to 9% of GDP in 2009 and even higher in 2010.. Plans that were put forward for the halving of the deficit within 4 years included an increase to 45% of income tax rates for earners of over £150,000 a year


 * Quantitative easing  and Asset protection 
 * Discount rate cut - from 2% to 1.0%.
 * IMF endorsement IMF Deputy Managing Director says "There is no unique weakness in the UK economy, and we believe the measures taken ...will strengthen the economy over the medium term ".

Asia

 * China's growth rate falls
 * Japan's exports halved - exports in January 2009 were  56% less than in January 2008.
 * Japan's industrial production falls - in January to 10.0% lower than in the previous month and 30.8% below  that of January 2008.
 * Japan's IMF loan - of $100bn.

United States

 * Banks fail stress tests - of the 19 banks  tested  and it was found  that ten of them need to raise a total of $74.6bn.  Any who fail to raise their quota will come under increased government control

Europe except UK

 * ECB discount rate cut to 1 percent - the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem be decreased by 25 basis points to 1.00%, from 13/05/09.
 * ECB quantitative easing starts - with plans to buy €60bn worth of bonds.
 * Ireland's supplementary budget - a number of tax increases and public expenditure cuts designed to reduce the deficit to 10.75 per cent of GDP for 2009.

United Kingdom

 * Consumer confidence falls to an all-time low.
 * More quantitative easing: Bank of England increases its Asset Purchase Programme by £50 Billion to £125 Billion
 * Budget - broadly in line with pre-budget propsals (but with top tax rate raised to 50%)
 * Treasury forecasts 2010 upturn and 75% debt- puts gdp growth at -3½ to -3¾ per cent for 2009 (in line with independent forecasts) and 1 to 1½ per cent for 2010 (at the upper end of the range of independent forecasts) and forecasts an increase in national debt to about 75 percent of gdp.

Leading Indicators
per cent - long-term average = 100 Growth cycle phases of the CLI are defined as follows: expansion (increase above 100), downturn (decrease above 100), slowdown (decrease below100), recovery (increase below 100).


 * {|class = "wikitable"

! !align="center"|  Japan !align="center"|  Italy !align="center"|  France !align="center"|  Germany !align="center"| United States !align="center"| United Kingdom !align="center"|  China !align="center"|  Russia
 * October 2008
 * align="center"|96.3
 * align="center"|96.6
 * align="center"|97.0
 * align="center"|94.9
 * align="center"|95.7
 * align="center"|97.2
 * align="center"|95.1
 * align="center"|96.4
 * November 2008
 * align="center"|94.5
 * align="center"|95.9
 * align="center"|96.3
 * align="center"|93.3
 * align="center"|94.1
 * align="center"|96.6
 * align="center"|93.1
 * align="center"|93.6
 * December 2008
 * align="center"|92.6
 * align="center"|95.9
 * align="center"|96.1
 * align="center"|91.7
 * align="center"|92.6
 * align="center"|96.3
 * align="center"|92.1
 * align="center"|90.6
 * January 2009
 * align="center"|91.2
 * align="center"|96.2
 * align="center"|96.3
 * align="center"|90.7
 * align="center"|91.3
 * align="center"|96.3
 * align="center"|91.7
 * align="center"|88.2
 * February 2009
 * align="center"|90.0
 * align="center"|96.6
 * align="center"|96.8
 * align="center"|90.0
 * align="center"|90.5
 * align="center"|96.3
 * align="center"|92.1
 * align="center"|86.3
 * March 2009
 * align="center"|89.0
 * align="center"|97.4
 * align="center"|97.9
 * align="center"|89.6
 * align="center"|89.9
 * align="center"|96.6
 * align="center"|93.0
 * align="center"|84.9
 * Change
 * align="center"|↓
 * align="center"|↑
 * align="center"|↑
 * align="center"|↓
 * align="center"|↓
 * align="center"|↑
 * align="center"|↑
 * align="center"|↓
 * }
 * align="center"|↑
 * align="center"|↓
 * align="center"|↓
 * align="center"|↑
 * align="center"|↑
 * align="center"|↓
 * }

Source: OECD Composite leading indicators

Forecasts

 * Annual percentage growth in Gross Domestic Product


 * (forecasts are shown in italics)


 * {|class="wikitable"

!Date !Source !Country ! 2007 ! 2008 ! 2009 ! 2010 ! 2011
 * 30 March 2009
 * World Bank
 * United States
 * 2.0
 * 1.1
 * -2.4
 * 2.0
 * Japan
 * 2.1
 * -0.7
 * -5.3
 * 1.3
 * Euro area
 * 2.6
 * 0.7
 * -2.7
 * 0.9
 * China
 * 12
 * 9.0
 * 6.5
 * 7.3
 * Developing
 * 6.1
 * 5.8
 * 2.2
 * 4.8
 * World
 * 3.7
 * 3.1
 * -0.6
 * 2.9
 * 31 March 2009
 * OECD Economic Outlook
 * United States
 * 1.1
 * -4.0
 * 0
 * United Kingdom
 * 0.7
 * -3.7
 * -0.2
 * France
 * 0.7
 * -3.3
 * -0.1
 * Germany
 * 1.0
 * -5.3
 * 0.2
 * Japan
 * -0.6
 * -6.6
 * -0.5
 * 22 April 2009
 * International Monetary Fund
 * United States
 * 2.0
 * 1.1
 * -2.8
 * 0
 * United Kingdom
 * 3.0
 * 0.7
 * -4.1
 * -0.4
 * France
 * 2.1
 * 0.7
 * -3.0
 * 0.4
 * Germany
 * 2.5
 * 1.3
 * -5.6
 * -1.0
 * Japan
 * 2.4
 * -0.6
 * -6.2
 * 0.5
 * China
 * 13
 * 9
 * 6.5
 * 7.5
 * World
 * 3.8
 * 2.1
 * -2.5
 * 1.0
 * 9 May 2009
 * Economist Poll
 * United States
 * -2.9
 * 1.4
 * United Kingdom
 * -3.7
 * 0.3
 * France
 * -2.9
 * 0.3
 * Germany
 * -5.2
 * 0.3
 * Japan
 * -6.4
 * 0.6
 * }
 * 0.7
 * -3.0
 * 0.4
 * Germany
 * 2.5
 * 1.3
 * -5.6
 * -1.0
 * Japan
 * 2.4
 * -0.6
 * -6.2
 * 0.5
 * China
 * 13
 * 9
 * 6.5
 * 7.5
 * World
 * 3.8
 * 2.1
 * -2.5
 * 1.0
 * 9 May 2009
 * Economist Poll
 * United States
 * -2.9
 * 1.4
 * United Kingdom
 * -3.7
 * 0.3
 * France
 * -2.9
 * 0.3
 * Germany
 * -5.2
 * 0.3
 * Japan
 * -6.4
 * 0.6
 * }
 * -2.9
 * 1.4
 * United Kingdom
 * -3.7
 * 0.3
 * France
 * -2.9
 * 0.3
 * Germany
 * -5.2
 * 0.3
 * Japan
 * -6.4
 * 0.6
 * }
 * -2.9
 * 0.3
 * Germany
 * -5.2
 * 0.3
 * Japan
 * -6.4
 * 0.6
 * }
 * -5.2
 * 0.3
 * Japan
 * -6.4
 * 0.6
 * }
 * -6.4
 * 0.6
 * }
 * 0.6
 * }